Always the favorite
Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.
profit
+302u
ROI
+82.5%
win rate
88%
bets
8
drawdown
2.5%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Always the favorite
💰
Stake size
Quarter Kelly
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+57u
period 24profit withdrawn+0u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22profit withdrawn+0u
period 21profit withdrawn+0u
period 20profit withdrawn+0u
period 19profit withdrawn+26u
period 18profit withdrawn+15u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 494 | 96% | +2547 | +4.9% | 13.6% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 494 | 96% | +1266 | +5% | 8.3% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 494 | 96% | +504 | +5.1% | 4.1% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 8 | 88% | +302 | +82.5% | 2.5% | Selected |
| Martingale | 494 | 96% | +274 | +5.3% | 2.9% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 494 | 96% | +251 | +5.1% | 2.3% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 494 | 96% | +251 | +5.1% | 2.3% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 8, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | Vici Gaming | 2.15 | 50 | won | +57 | 1302 |
| 18.02.26 | MOUZ – Execration | MOUZ | 1.55 | 48 | won | +26 | 1244 |
| 30.01.26 | Power Rangers – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 1.42 | 36 | won | +15 | 1218 |
| 21.05.25 | PARIVISION – AVULUS | PARIVISION | 1.32 | 46 | won | +15 | 1203 |
| 06.05.25 | PARIVISION – Aurora Gaming | PARIVISION | 1.50 | 76 | won | +38 | 1188 |
| 25.01.25 | Night Pulse – Jigglin | Night Pulse | 1.85 | 29 | lost | -29 | 1150 |
| 04.11.24 | Team Spirit – Looking for Org | Team Spirit | 1.55 | 8 | won | +4 | 1179 |
| 04.09.24 | Xtreme Gaming – Heroic | Xtreme Gaming | 3.40 | 73 | won | +175 | 1175 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.