Always the favorite
Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.
profit
+1266u
ROI
+5%
win rate
96%
bets
494
drawdown
8.3%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Always the favorite
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+74u
period 24profit withdrawn+34u
period 23profit withdrawn+80u
period 22profit withdrawn+45u
period 21profit withdrawn+63u
period 20profit withdrawn+68u
period 19profit withdrawn+45u
period 18profit withdrawn+69u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 494 | 96% | +2547 | +4.9% | 13.6% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 494 | 96% | +1266 | +5% | 8.3% | Selected |
| 2% of bankroll | 494 | 96% | +504 | +5.1% | 4.1% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 8 | 88% | +302 | +82.5% | 2.5% | Select |
| Martingale | 494 | 96% | +274 | +5.3% | 2.9% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 494 | 96% | +251 | +5.1% | 2.3% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 494 | 96% | +251 | +5.1% | 2.3% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 494, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 1.01 | 54 | won | +1 | 2266 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | PARIVISION | 1.06 | 54 | won | +3 | 2265 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Team Liquid | 1.03 | 53 | won | +2 | 2262 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | PlayTime | 1.01 | 53 | won | +1 | 2260 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | Vici Gaming | 2.15 | 50 | won | +58 | 2260 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | NS Team | 1.20 | 50 | won | +10 | 2202 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.17 | 51 | won | +9 | 2192 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 1.01 | 51 | won | +1 | 2183 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 1.01 | 51 | won | +1 | 2183 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Ilbirs eSports | 1.35 | 50 | won | +18 | 2182 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 1.01 | 50 | won | +1 | 2164 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.12 | 50 | won | +6 | 2164 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.02 | 50 | won | +1 | 2158 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team – TpaBoMaH Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.01 | 50 | won | +0 | 2157 |
| 27.07.26 | NS Team – Rostik Team | NS Team | 1.25 | 49 | won | +12 | 2156 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSports | Nemiga Gaming | 1.80 | 52 | lost | -52 | 2144 |
| 20.07.26 | Zero Tenacity – Nemiga Gaming | Zero Tenacity | 1.25 | 51 | won | +13 | 2196 |
| 17.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 1.04 | 51 | won | +2 | 2183 |
| 12.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Nemesis | REKONIX | 1.01 | 51 | won | +1 | 2181 |
| 11.07.26 | PlayTime – Nigma Galaxy | Nigma Galaxy | 1.02 | 51 | won | +1 | 2181 |
| 10.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 1.01 | 51 | won | +1 | 2180 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Yandex – Inner Circle | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 51 | won | +1 | 2179 |
| 08.07.26 | GamerLegion – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.20 | 51 | won | +10 | 2179 |
| 08.07.26 | Poor Rangers – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 1.01 | 50 | won | +1 | 2169 |
| 07.07.26 | Inner Circle – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.20 | 50 | won | +10 | 2168 |
| 28.06.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Yellow Submarine | Nigma Galaxy | 1.12 | 54 | won | +6 | 2158 |
| 28.06.26 | By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE Team | By_Owl Team | 1.04 | 54 | won | +2 | 2152 |
| 27.06.26 | Natus Vincere – L1ga Team | L1ga Team | 1.60 | 52 | won | +31 | 2149 |
| 25.06.26 | Team Spirit – Nigma Galaxy | Team Spirit | 1.01 | 52 | won | +1 | 2118 |
| 24.06.26 | Recrent Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.02 | 52 | won | +1 | 2118 |
| 24.06.26 | Dread Team – DangerLyoha Team | Dread Team | 1.30 | 51 | won | +15 | 2117 |
| 21.06.26 | InterActive Philippines – Mentality Monster | Mentality Monster | 1.02 | 51 | won | +1 | 2101 |
| 21.06.26 | Grind Back – Carstensz Esports | Grind Back | 1.01 | 51 | won | +1 | 2100 |
| 19.06.26 | summer bear – Power Rangers | Power Rangers | 1.01 | 51 | won | +1 | 2100 |
| 17.06.26 | Power Rangers – Flame Esports | Power Rangers | 1.01 | 51 | won | +1 | 2099 |
| 16.06.26 | Flame Esports – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 1.20 | 51 | won | +10 | 2099 |
| 13.06.26 | Estar Backs – Gior Dota Team | Estar Backs | 1.03 | 50 | won | +2 | 2089 |
| 11.06.26 | Phenomenon – NA Last Hope | NA Last Hope | 1.35 | 53 | lost | -53 | 2087 |
| 11.06.26 | Team Nemesis – Gior Dota Team | Team Nemesis | 1.01 | 53 | won | +1 | 2140 |
| 10.06.26 | L1ga Team – Zero Tenacity | L1ga Team | 1.01 | 53 | won | +1 | 2140 |
| 07.06.26 | BETBOOM Team – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.65 | 51 | won | +33 | 2139 |
| 06.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | Ramzes Club | 1.32 | 51 | won | +16 | 2106 |
| 05.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Liquid | LGD Gaming | 1.03 | 51 | won | +2 | 2090 |
| 05.06.26 | Execration – REKONIX | REKONIX | 1.08 | 50 | won | +4 | 2088 |
| 04.06.26 | Carstensz Esports – REKONIX | REKONIX | 1.02 | 50 | won | +1 | 2084 |
| 02.06.26 | L1ga Team – Poor Rangers | Poor Rangers | 1.02 | 50 | won | +1 | 2083 |
| 02.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | LGD Gaming | 1.01 | 50 | won | +1 | 2082 |
| 01.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | Ramzes Club | 1.08 | 50 | won | +4 | 2081 |
| 30.05.26 | Team Spirit – OG | Team Spirit | 1.01 | 52 | won | +1 | 2077 |
| 29.05.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.45 | 51 | won | +23 | 2077 |
| 28.05.26 | NS Club – Ramzes Club | Ramzes Club | 1.12 | 51 | won | +6 | 2054 |
| 27.05.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.20 | 50 | won | +10 | 2048 |
| 27.05.26 | OG – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 50 | won | +1 | 2038 |
| 26.05.26 | PARIVISION – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 50 | won | +1 | 2037 |
| 26.05.26 | Team Falcons – LGD Gaming | Team Falcons | 1.17 | 50 | won | +8 | 2037 |
| 26.05.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 50 | won | +0 | 2028 |
| 26.05.26 | GLYPH – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.60 | 48 | won | +29 | 2028 |
| 24.05.26 | Recrent Team – Solo Team | Solo Team | 1.01 | 48 | won | +0 | 1999 |
| 23.05.26 | Miposhka Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.03 | 48 | won | +1 | 1998 |
| 22.05.26 | Aurora Gaming – Tundra Esports | Aurora Gaming | 1.03 | 48 | won | +1 | 1997 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.