Always the favorite
Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.
profit
+1301u
ROI
+44.6%
win rate
73%
bets
59
drawdown
10.4%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Always the favorite
💰
Stake size
Quarter Kelly
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+146u
period 24profit withdrawn+9u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22top-up-142u
period 21top-up-24u
period 20profit withdrawn+151u
period 19profit withdrawn+197u
period 18top-up-58u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 2542 | 95% | +11373 | +3.6% | 25.4% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 2542 | 95% | +5281 | +3.8% | 13.6% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 2542 | 95% | +2018 | +3.8% | 5.7% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 59 | 73% | +1301 | +44.6% | 10.4% | Selected |
| 1% of bankroll | 2542 | 95% | +994 | +3.8% | 3.1% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 2542 | 95% | +978 | +3.8% | 3% | Select |
| Martingale | 2542 | 95% | +955 | +3.6% | 6.6% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 59, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06.08.26 | No Hoodwink – Level UP | No Hoodwink | 1.60 | 46 | lost | -46 | 2301 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Liquid – LGD Gaming | Team Liquid | 2.50 | 90 | won | +135 | 2348 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | Vici Gaming | 2.15 | 50 | won | +57 | 2212 |
| 31.07.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | LGD Gaming | 2.00 | 66 | won | +66 | 2155 |
| 21.07.26 | Team Lynx – Team Spirit Academy | Team Lynx | 1.52 | 57 | lost | -57 | 2089 |
| 29.05.26 | Tundra Esports – GLYPH | Tundra Esports | 1.45 | 62 | won | +28 | 2146 |
| 27.05.26 | GLYPH – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.55 | 79 | won | +43 | 2118 |
| 27.05.26 | PARIVISION – BETBOOM TEAM | PARIVISION | 1.55 | 4 | won | +2 | 2074 |
| 27.05.26 | LGD Gaming – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 1.28 | 62 | lost | -62 | 2072 |
| 26.05.26 | PARIVISION – OG | PARIVISION | 1.22 | 21 | won | +5 | 2134 |
| 20.05.26 | Team Liquid – Xtreme Gaming | Team Liquid | 1.80 | 75 | lost | -75 | 2130 |
| 08.05.26 | Tundra Esports – 1w Team | Tundra Esports | 1.78 | 102 | lost | -102 | 2205 |
| 03.05.26 | Team Resilience – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 1.72 | 26 | won | +19 | 2307 |
| 02.04.26 | Roar Gaming – Mideng Dreamer | Mideng Dreamer | 1.80 | 24 | lost | -24 | 2288 |
| 25.03.26 | Team Spirit – Nigma Galaxy | Team Spirit | 2.50 | 100 | won | +150 | 2312 |
| 08.03.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Nemesis | Xtreme Gaming | 1.32 | 3 | won | +1 | 2162 |
| 19.02.26 | paiN Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 3.40 | 65 | won | +156 | 2161 |
| 18.02.26 | MOUZ – Execration | MOUZ | 1.55 | 48 | won | +27 | 2005 |
| 09.02.26 | Aurora Gaming – Zero Tenacity | Aurora Gaming | 1.52 | 81 | won | +42 | 1978 |
| 06.02.26 | MOUZ – Heroic | MOUZ | 1.85 | 21 | won | +18 | 1936 |
| 04.02.26 | Team Falcons – Team Liquid | Team Falcons | 1.62 | 45 | lost | -45 | 1919 |
| 30.01.26 | Power Rangers – BETBOOM TEAM | BETBOOM TEAM | 1.42 | 34 | won | +14 | 1964 |
| 28.01.26 | L1ga Team – AVULUS | L1ga Team | 1.62 | 18 | won | +11 | 1949 |
| 25.01.26 | Winter Bear – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 1.65 | 83 | lost | -83 | 1938 |
| 02.12.25 | AVULUS – Passion UA | Passion UA | 2.15 | 32 | won | +37 | 2021 |
| 10.11.25 | Zero Tenacity – Most Wanted | Most Wanted | 1.65 | 8 | lost | -8 | 1985 |
| 07.11.25 | Most Wanted – Team Tidebound | Team Tidebound | 1.45 | 15 | won | +7 | 1993 |
| 06.11.25 | Team Tidebound – eSpoiled | Team Tidebound | 1.42 | 51 | won | +22 | 1987 |
| 04.11.25 | Team Public – Team Tidebound | Team Tidebound | 1.52 | 77 | won | +40 | 1965 |
| 15.10.25 | BETBOOM TEAM – Aurora Gaming | BETBOOM TEAM | 1.90 | 73 | lost | -73 | 1925 |
| 07.10.25 | 1w Team – OG | 1w Team | 2.50 | 100 | won | +150 | 1999 |
| 03.10.25 | Passion UA – eSpoiled | Passion UA | 1.75 | 1 | lost | -1 | 1849 |
| 30.09.25 | Team Lynx – Kalmychata | Kalmychata | 1.45 | 1 | won | +1 | 1850 |
| 28.09.25 | Execration – Team Aureus | Team Aureus | 1.82 | 14 | won | +11 | 1849 |
| 26.09.25 | Zero Tenacity – Pipsqueak+4 | Pipsqueak+4 | 1.75 | 8 | won | +6 | 1838 |
| 19.09.25 | eSpoiled – Kalmychata | Kalmychata | 1.30 | 27 | lost | -27 | 1831 |
| 13.09.25 | BETBOOM TEAM – Heroic | BETBOOM TEAM | 1.60 | 50 | won | +30 | 1858 |
| 21.08.25 | OG – Passion UA | Passion UA | 1.82 | 27 | lost | -27 | 1828 |
| 28.07.25 | BETBOOM TEAM – Team Yandex | BETBOOM TEAM | 1.55 | 106 | won | +58 | 1855 |
| 25.07.25 | One Move – AVULUS | AVULUS | 1.92 | 23 | won | +21 | 1797 |
| 11.07.25 | Tundra Esports – Team Yandex | Tundra Esports | 1.65 | 97 | won | +63 | 1776 |
| 09.07.25 | PARIVISION – Team Liquid | PARIVISION | 3.10 | 108 | lost | -108 | 1712 |
| 04.07.25 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Yellow Submarine | 1.82 | 46 | won | +38 | 1821 |
| 04.07.25 | Kalmychata – Level UP | Kalmychata | 1.80 | 55 | won | +44 | 1783 |
| 27.06.25 | Kalmychata – 4Pirates | 4Pirates | 1.72 | 16 | lost | -16 | 1738 |
| 21.05.25 | PARIVISION – AVULUS | PARIVISION | 1.32 | 46 | won | +15 | 1754 |
| 06.05.25 | PARIVISION – Aurora Gaming | PARIVISION | 1.50 | 76 | won | +38 | 1740 |
| 25.01.25 | Night Pulse – Jigglin | Night Pulse | 1.85 | 29 | lost | -29 | 1702 |
| 18.01.25 | Tundra Esports – Team Secret | Tundra Esports | 1.48 | 23 | won | +11 | 1731 |
| 12.12.24 | Natus Vincere Junior – AnimeVesta | Natus Vincere Junior | 1.48 | 7 | won | +4 | 1720 |
| 11.12.24 | M80 – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.82 | 92 | won | +76 | 1716 |
| 09.12.24 | M80 – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.20 | 86 | won | +103 | 1641 |
| 09.12.24 | Team Falcons – Team Spirit | Team Falcons | 2.90 | 100 | won | +190 | 1538 |
| 27.11.24 | OG – Team Falcons | Team Falcons | 1.50 | 87 | won | +43 | 1348 |
| 04.11.24 | Team Spirit – Looking for Org | Team Spirit | 1.55 | 8 | won | +4 | 1305 |
| 30.10.24 | Team Spirit – Heroic | Team Spirit | 2.40 | 69 | won | +96 | 1300 |
| 24.09.24 | Team Hryvnia – Palianytsia | Palianytsia | 1.85 | 8 | won | +6 | 1204 |
| 04.09.24 | G2 Invictus Gaming – Talon Esports | G2 Invictus Gaming | 2.40 | 16 | won | +23 | 1198 |
| 04.09.24 | Xtreme Gaming – Heroic | Xtreme Gaming | 3.40 | 73 | won | +175 | 1175 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.