Always the favorite
Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.
profit
+545u
ROI
+9.2%
win rate
62%
bets
128
drawdown
28.7%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Always the favorite
payments
Stake size
5% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+85u
period 2top-up-81u
period 1profit withdrawn+540u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% of bankroll | 128 | 62% | +1121 | +10.2% | 36% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 128 | 62% | +545 | +9.2% | 28.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 128 | 62% | +218 | +8.8% | 15.6% | Select |
| Martingale | 128 | 62% | +132 | +4.2% | 55.1% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 128 | 62% | +110 | +8.6% | 8.8% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 128 | 62% | +110 | +8.7% | 8.7% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 128, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | Team Lynx – PuckChamp | Team Lynx | 1.40 | 53 | won | +21 | 1545 |
| 14.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Shadow Dance | Shadow Dance | 1.83 | 51 | won | +43 | 1523 |
| 13.10.26 | Stray Team – Stariy_bog Team | Stariy_bog Team | 1.88 | 54 | lost | -54 | 1481 |
| 13.10.26 | CyberHero – Shadow Dance | Shadow Dance | 1.88 | 57 | lost | -57 | 1535 |
| 13.10.26 | Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit Academy | Dawn Bulls | 1.54 | 55 | won | +30 | 1591 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Rising | 1.82 | 53 | won | +44 | 1561 |
| 12.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Dawn Bulls | Dawn Bulls | 1.70 | 51 | won | +36 | 1518 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | Team Spirit | 1.70 | 49 | won | +35 | 1482 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.87 | 52 | lost | -52 | 1447 |
| 09.10.26 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Team Spirit | 1.68 | 50 | won | +34 | 1499 |
| 08.10.26 | LEGION – BlasterbI | BlasterbI | 1.88 | 53 | lost | -53 | 1465 |
| 08.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – 1w Team | Aurora Gaming | 1.86 | 51 | won | +44 | 1518 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | Team Yandex | 1.69 | 49 | won | +34 | 1474 |
| 07.10.26 | CyberHero – BlasterbI | BlasterbI | 1.89 | 47 | won | +42 | 1440 |
| 07.10.26 | Team Synapse – LEGION | Team Synapse | 1.85 | 49 | lost | -49 | 1398 |
| 07.10.26 | MOUZ – CyberHero | CyberHero | 1.66 | 48 | won | +32 | 1448 |
| 06.10.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.65 | 50 | lost | -50 | 1416 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | CyberHero | 1.72 | 49 | won | +35 | 1467 |
| 05.10.26 | MOUZ – Nemiga Gaming | MOUZ | 1.77 | 47 | won | +36 | 1431 |
| 05.10.26 | LEGION – BlasterbI | LEGION | 1.89 | 45 | won | +40 | 1396 |
| 05.10.26 | Yellow Submarine – CyberHero | Yellow Submarine | 1.63 | 43 | won | +28 | 1356 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.75 | 46 | lost | -46 | 1328 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 48 | lost | -48 | 1374 |
| 03.10.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | LGD Gaming | 1.86 | 46 | won | +40 | 1422 |
| 02.10.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | BETBOOM TEAM | 1.87 | 49 | lost | -49 | 1383 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 1.76 | 51 | lost | -51 | 1431 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.85 | 54 | lost | -54 | 1482 |
| 01.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Liquid | Aurora Gaming | 1.74 | 52 | won | +39 | 1536 |
| 01.10.26 | MOUZ – OG | OG | 1.76 | 50 | won | +38 | 1498 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.74 | 48 | lost | -48 | 1459 |
| 30.09.26 | Team Yandex – MOUZ | Team Yandex | 1.46 | 47 | won | +22 | 1508 |
| 30.09.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | OG | 1.88 | 50 | lost | -50 | 1486 |
| 29.09.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | Aurora Gaming | 1.87 | 48 | won | +42 | 1536 |
| 29.09.26 | 1w Team – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.43 | 50 | lost | -50 | 1494 |
| 29.09.26 | Team Spirit – Team Nemesis | Team Spirit | 1.75 | 48 | won | +36 | 1545 |
| 27.09.26 | YBN Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 1.69 | 47 | won | +32 | 1508 |
| 27.09.26 | Daxak Team – Rostik Team | Daxak Team | 1.63 | 45 | won | +29 | 1476 |
| 27.09.26 | Stray Team – YBN Team | Stray Team | 1.74 | 48 | lost | -48 | 1447 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 1.82 | 46 | won | +38 | 1495 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.53 | 45 | won | +24 | 1457 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | Rostik Team | 1.86 | 43 | won | +37 | 1434 |
| 25.09.26 | Xtreme Gaming – LGD Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.78 | 45 | lost | -45 | 1397 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 1.54 | 47 | lost | -47 | 1442 |
| 25.09.26 | Solo Team – avice Team | avice Team | 1.82 | 46 | won | +37 | 1490 |
| 25.09.26 | GamerLegion – 1w Team | GamerLegion | 1.83 | 44 | won | +36 | 1452 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.64 | 42 | won | +27 | 1416 |
| 24.09.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.88 | 41 | won | +36 | 1388 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | Team Yandex | 1.82 | 39 | won | +32 | 1353 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Yellow Submarine | 1.81 | 38 | won | +30 | 1321 |
| 24.09.26 | Two Move – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.79 | 36 | won | +29 | 1290 |
| 24.09.26 | Daxak Team – gpK~ Team | Daxak Team | 1.50 | 35 | won | +18 | 1262 |
| 24.09.26 | Natus Vincere – LGD Gaming | Natus Vincere | 1.53 | 37 | lost | -37 | 1244 |
| 24.09.26 | YBN Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 1.72 | 36 | won | +26 | 1281 |
| 23.09.26 | Stray Team – NS Team | Stray Team | 1.78 | 34 | won | +27 | 1256 |
| 23.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Conventus Stellarum | Team Nemesis | 1.74 | 33 | won | +25 | 1229 |
| 22.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 1.87 | 32 | won | +28 | 1204 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | Daxak Team | 1.66 | 31 | won | +20 | 1176 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Team Spirit Academy | 1.58 | 32 | lost | -32 | 1156 |
| 22.09.26 | MOUZ – Hokori | Hokori | 1.78 | 34 | lost | -34 | 1188 |
| 22.09.26 | Natus Vincere – 1w Team | Natus Vincere | 1.57 | 33 | won | +19 | 1223 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.