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Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5

D2Dota 2Quarter Kellypayout: monthly

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

profit
+128u
ROI
+42.2%
win rate
100%
bets
9
drawdown
0%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5

💰
Stake size

Quarter Kelly

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+0u
period 24profit withdrawn+0u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22profit withdrawn+39u
period 21profit withdrawn+0u
period 20profit withdrawn+1u
period 19profit withdrawn+0u
period 18profit withdrawn+15u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
10% of bankroll117097%+3750+3%22.3%Select
5% of bankroll117097%+1829+3%12.7%Select
2% of bankroll117097%+721+3%5.6%Select
Martingale117097%+367+3.1%2.7%Select
1% of bankroll117097%+359+3%2.9%Select
Flat (10 units)117097%+357+3%2.9%Select
Quarter Kelly9100%+128+42.2%0%Selected
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 9, showing the last 60.
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
29.05.26Tundra Esports GLYPHTundra Esports1.4575won+341128
26.05.26PARIVISION OGPARIVISION1.2224won+51094
08.03.26Xtreme Gaming Team NemesisXtreme Gaming1.323won+11089
30.01.26Power Rangers BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.4236won+151088
07.11.25Most Wanted Team TideboundTeam Tidebound1.4514won+61073
21.05.25PARIVISION AVULUSPARIVISION1.3246won+151067
06.05.25PARIVISION Aurora GamingPARIVISION1.5076won+381052
18.01.25Tundra Esports Team SecretTundra Esports1.4823won+111014
12.12.24Natus Vincere Junior AnimeVestaNatus Vincere Junior1.485won+31003
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.