Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.
profit
-30u
ROI
-50.2%
win rate
33%
bets
3
drawdown
4%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
payments
Stake size
2% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-20u
period 2top-up-10u
period 1profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flat (10 units) | 3 | 33% | -15 | -50% | 2% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 3 | 33% | -15 | -50.1% | 2% | Select |
| Martingale | 3 | 33% | -25 | -62.5% | 3% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 3 | 33% | -30 | -50.2% | 4% | Selected |
| 5% of bankroll | 3 | 33% | -76 | -50.4% | 9.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 3 | 33% | -155 | -50.8% | 19.5% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 3, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Dawn Bulls | Dawn Bulls | 1.35 | 20 | lost | -20 | 970 |
| 29.09.26 | 1w Team – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 1.43 | 20 | lost | -20 | 990 |
| 24.09.26 | Daxak Team – gpK~ Team | Daxak Team | 1.50 | 20 | won | +10 | 1010 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.