Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-690u
ROI
-21.1%
win rate
39%
bets
36
drawdown
87.2%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
10% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+138u
period 2top-up-543u
period 1top-up-286u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 36 | 39% | -79 | -22.3% | 10.8% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 36 | 39% | -81 | -22.4% | 11% | Select |
| Martingale | 36 | 39% | -85 | -4.3% | 60.6% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 36 | 39% | -156 | -22.1% | 21% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 36 | 39% | -373 | -21.8% | 49.1% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 36 | 39% | -690 | -21.1% | 87.2% | Selected |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 36, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.10.26 | Stray Team – Stariy_bog Team | Stray Team | 1.89 | 105 | won | +93 | 310 |
| 13.10.26 | CyberHero – Shadow Dance | CyberHero | 1.90 | 96 | won | +86 | 217 |
| 13.10.26 | Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ | The WarriorsQ | 1.95 | 107 | lost | -107 | 131 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Dawning | 1.95 | 118 | lost | -118 | 237 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.12 | 132 | lost | -132 | 356 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 1.91 | 121 | won | +109 | 487 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.13 | 134 | lost | -134 | 378 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | HULIGANI | 2.08 | 149 | lost | -149 | 512 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Spirit | 2.05 | 135 | won | +142 | 661 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 2.19 | 120 | won | +143 | 519 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | 1w Team | 2.03 | 109 | won | +112 | 376 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.92 | 100 | won | +92 | 264 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | PARIVISION | 2.07 | 41 | won | +44 | 172 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | avice Team | 1.95 | 46 | lost | -46 | 128 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | LGD Gaming | 2.46 | 51 | lost | -51 | 174 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | avice Team | 1.92 | 57 | lost | -57 | 225 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Team Nemesis | 2.21 | 63 | lost | -63 | 281 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.96 | 70 | lost | -70 | 344 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.97 | 78 | lost | -78 | 414 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.35 | 69 | won | +92 | 492 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | avice Team | 2.18 | 76 | lost | -76 | 400 |
| 21.09.26 | YBN Team – NS Team | NS Team | 1.95 | 70 | won | +66 | 476 |
| 21.09.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Cobra | Team Cobra | 1.90 | 77 | lost | -77 | 410 |
| 20.09.26 | Inner Circle – Yellow Submarine | Inner Circle | 2.21 | 86 | lost | -86 | 487 |
| 20.09.26 | PlayTime – Team Cobra | PlayTime | 1.89 | 95 | lost | -95 | 573 |
| 20.09.26 | Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.89 | 88 | won | +78 | 668 |
| 19.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Yakult Brothers | LGD Gaming | 1.95 | 80 | won | +76 | 590 |
| 16.09.26 | Inner Circle – uralan | Inner Circle | 1.90 | 89 | lost | -89 | 514 |
| 12.09.26 | Team Nemesis – InterActive Philippines | InterActive Philippines | 1.95 | 99 | lost | -99 | 603 |
| 08.09.26 | MOUZ – GamerLegion | MOUZ | 1.96 | 110 | lost | -110 | 702 |
| 07.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | GamerLegion | 1.97 | 100 | won | +97 | 811 |
| 30.08.26 | Natus Vincere – MOUZ | Natus Vincere | 1.89 | 66 | won | +58 | 714 |
| 29.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 2.02 | 73 | lost | -73 | 656 |
| 29.08.26 | DYNASTY – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.47 | 81 | lost | -81 | 729 |
| 24.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.89 | 90 | lost | -90 | 810 |
| 23.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | PARIVISION | 2.02 | 100 | lost | -100 | 900 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.