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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-2777u
ROI
-56.2%
win rate
37%
bets
494
drawdown
277.6%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-48u
period 24top-up-114u
period 23top-up-124u
period 22top-up-138u
period 21top-up-156u
period 20top-up-149u
period 19top-up-89u
period 18top-up-172u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale8739%-1840-48%184%Select
1% of bankroll49437%-2628-56.1%262.8%Select
Flat (10 units)49437%-2777-56.2%277.6%Select
2% of bankroll49437%-4978-56%497.8%Select
5% of bankroll49437%-10634-55.8%1062.9%Select
Quarter Kelly3002%-14113-97.5%1411.3%Select
10% of bankroll49437%-16671-55.3%1665.5%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 494, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0010lost-10-1777
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.0010lost-10-1767
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0010lost-10-1757
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0010lost-10-1747
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0010lost-10-1737
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamNS Team1.2010won+2-1727
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.1710won+2-1729
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.0010lost-10-1730
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.0010lost-10-1720
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.0010lost-10-1710
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0110won+0-1700
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team1w Team1.1210won+1-1700
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.0210won+0-1702
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.0110won+0-1702
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamNS Team1.2510won+2-1702
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSportsNemiga Gaming1.8010lost-10-1704
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming3.6010lost-10-1694
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamNigma Galaxy15.0010lost-10-1684
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisREKONIX1.0110won+0-1674
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyPlayTime5.8010lost-10-1674
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritREKONIX15.0010lost-10-1664
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleInner Circle15.0010lost-10-1654
08.07.26GamerLegion – Xtreme GamingGamerLegion15.0010lost-10-1644
08.07.26Poor Rangers – BETBOOM TeamPoor Rangers15.0010lost-10-1634
07.07.26Inner Circle – 1w TeamInner Circle15.0010lost-10-1624
28.06.26Nigma Galaxy – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine5.8010lost-10-1614
28.06.26By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE TeamALOHADANCE Team13.0010lost-10-1604
27.06.26Natus Vincere – L1ga TeamL1ga Team1.6010won+6-1594
25.06.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy12.0010lost-10-1600
24.06.26Recrent Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.0210won+0-1590
24.06.26Dread Team – DangerLyoha TeamDangerLyoha Team3.2010lost-10-1591
21.06.26InterActive Philippines – Mentality MonsterInterActive Philippines10.0010lost-10-1581
21.06.26Grind Back – Carstensz EsportsCarstensz Esports13.0010lost-10-1571
19.06.26summer bear – Power Rangerssummer bear13.0010lost-10-1561
17.06.26Power Rangers – Flame EsportsFlame Esports12.0010lost-10-1551
16.06.26Flame Esports – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy1.2010won+2-1541
13.06.26Estar Backs – Gior Dota TeamEstar Backs1.0310won+0-1543
11.06.26Phenomenon – NA Last HopeNA Last Hope1.3510lost-10-1543
11.06.26Team Nemesis – Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.0010lost-10-1533
10.06.26L1ga Team – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity11.0010lost-10-1523
07.06.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.6510won+6-1513
06.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubTpaBoMaH Club3.1010lost-10-1519
05.06.26LGD Gaming – Team LiquidLGD Gaming1.0310won+0-1509
05.06.26Execration – REKONIXExecration13.0010lost-10-1510
04.06.26Carstensz Esports – REKONIXCarstensz Esports12.0010lost-10-1500
02.06.26L1ga Team – Poor RangersPoor Rangers1.0210won+0-1490
02.06.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereLGD Gaming1.0110won+0-1490
01.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubRamzes Club1.0810won+1-1490
30.05.26Team Spirit – OGOG15.0010lost-10-1491
29.05.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.4510won+4-1481
28.05.26NS Club – Ramzes ClubNS Club5.3010lost-10-1485
27.05.26LGD Gaming – Team LiquidLGD Gaming4.5010lost-10-1475
27.05.26OG – Team YandexOG15.0010lost-10-1465
26.05.26PARIVISION – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0110won+0-1455
26.05.26Team Falcons – LGD GamingLGD Gaming5.0010lost-10-1455
26.05.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0110won+0-1445
26.05.26GLYPH – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.6010won+6-1446
24.05.26Recrent Team – Solo TeamRecrent Team12.0010lost-10-1452
23.05.26Miposhka Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.0310won+0-1442
22.05.26Aurora Gaming – Tundra EsportsTundra Esports11.0010lost-10-1442
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.