Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-16671u
ROI
-55.3%
win rate
37%
bets
494
drawdown
1665.5%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
10% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-398u
period 24top-up-701u
period 23top-up-732u
period 22top-up-768u
period 21top-up-821u
period 20top-up-792u
period 19top-up-609u
period 18top-up-837u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 87 | 39% | -1840 | -48% | 184% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 494 | 37% | -2628 | -56.1% | 262.8% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 494 | 37% | -2777 | -56.2% | 277.6% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 494 | 37% | -4978 | -56% | 497.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 494 | 37% | -10634 | -55.8% | 1062.9% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 300 | 2% | -14113 | -97.5% | 1411.3% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 494 | 37% | -16671 | -55.3% | 1665.5% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 494, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 67 | lost | -67 | -15671 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 74 | lost | -74 | -15604 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 10.00 | 83 | lost | -83 | -15530 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | GLYPH | 14.00 | 92 | lost | -92 | -15447 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | OG | 13.00 | 102 | lost | -102 | -15355 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | NS Team | 1.20 | 100 | won | +20 | -15253 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.17 | 29 | won | +5 | -15273 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Yakult Brothers | 14.00 | 33 | lost | -33 | -15278 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 11.00 | 36 | lost | -36 | -15246 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 3.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | -15209 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 1.01 | 40 | won | +0 | -15169 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.12 | 40 | won | +5 | -15169 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.02 | 40 | won | +1 | -15174 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team – TpaBoMaH Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.01 | 40 | won | +0 | -15175 |
| 27.07.26 | NS Team – Rostik Team | NS Team | 1.25 | 39 | won | +10 | -15175 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSports | Nemiga Gaming | 1.80 | 43 | lost | -43 | -15185 |
| 20.07.26 | Zero Tenacity – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 3.60 | 48 | lost | -48 | -15142 |
| 17.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM Team | Nigma Galaxy | 15.00 | 53 | lost | -53 | -15094 |
| 12.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Nemesis | REKONIX | 1.01 | 53 | won | +1 | -15041 |
| 11.07.26 | PlayTime – Nigma Galaxy | PlayTime | 5.80 | 59 | lost | -59 | -15041 |
| 10.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Spirit | REKONIX | 15.00 | 66 | lost | -66 | -14982 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Yandex – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 73 | lost | -73 | -14917 |
| 08.07.26 | GamerLegion – Xtreme Gaming | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 81 | lost | -81 | -14844 |
| 08.07.26 | Poor Rangers – BETBOOM Team | Poor Rangers | 15.00 | 90 | lost | -90 | -14763 |
| 07.07.26 | Inner Circle – 1w Team | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 100 | lost | -100 | -14673 |
| 28.06.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 5.80 | 30 | lost | -30 | -14573 |
| 28.06.26 | By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE Team | ALOHADANCE Team | 13.00 | 33 | lost | -33 | -14543 |
| 27.06.26 | Natus Vincere – L1ga Team | L1ga Team | 1.60 | 31 | won | +19 | -14510 |
| 25.06.26 | Team Spirit – Nigma Galaxy | Nigma Galaxy | 12.00 | 35 | lost | -35 | -14528 |
| 24.06.26 | Recrent Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.02 | 35 | won | +1 | -14494 |
| 24.06.26 | Dread Team – DangerLyoha Team | DangerLyoha Team | 3.20 | 39 | lost | -39 | -14494 |
| 21.06.26 | InterActive Philippines – Mentality Monster | InterActive Philippines | 10.00 | 43 | lost | -43 | -14456 |
| 21.06.26 | Grind Back – Carstensz Esports | Carstensz Esports | 13.00 | 48 | lost | -48 | -14413 |
| 19.06.26 | summer bear – Power Rangers | summer bear | 13.00 | 53 | lost | -53 | -14366 |
| 17.06.26 | Power Rangers – Flame Esports | Flame Esports | 12.00 | 59 | lost | -59 | -14313 |
| 16.06.26 | Flame Esports – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 1.20 | 58 | won | +12 | -14254 |
| 13.06.26 | Estar Backs – Gior Dota Team | Estar Backs | 1.03 | 57 | won | +2 | -14265 |
| 11.06.26 | Phenomenon – NA Last Hope | NA Last Hope | 1.35 | 64 | lost | -64 | -14267 |
| 11.06.26 | Team Nemesis – Gior Dota Team | Gior Dota Team | 12.00 | 71 | lost | -71 | -14203 |
| 10.06.26 | L1ga Team – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 11.00 | 79 | lost | -79 | -14133 |
| 07.06.26 | BETBOOM Team – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.65 | 74 | won | +48 | -14054 |
| 06.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | TpaBoMaH Club | 3.10 | 82 | lost | -82 | -14102 |
| 05.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Liquid | LGD Gaming | 1.03 | 82 | won | +2 | -14020 |
| 05.06.26 | Execration – REKONIX | Execration | 13.00 | 91 | lost | -91 | -14022 |
| 04.06.26 | Carstensz Esports – REKONIX | Carstensz Esports | 12.00 | 101 | lost | -101 | -13931 |
| 02.06.26 | L1ga Team – Poor Rangers | Poor Rangers | 1.02 | 101 | won | +2 | -13830 |
| 02.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | LGD Gaming | 1.01 | 101 | won | +1 | -13832 |
| 01.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | Ramzes Club | 1.08 | 100 | won | +8 | -13833 |
| 30.05.26 | Team Spirit – OG | OG | 15.00 | 26 | lost | -26 | -13841 |
| 29.05.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.45 | 25 | won | +11 | -13815 |
| 28.05.26 | NS Club – Ramzes Club | NS Club | 5.30 | 27 | lost | -27 | -13826 |
| 27.05.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Liquid | LGD Gaming | 4.50 | 31 | lost | -31 | -13799 |
| 27.05.26 | OG – Team Yandex | OG | 15.00 | 34 | lost | -34 | -13768 |
| 26.05.26 | PARIVISION – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 34 | won | +0 | -13735 |
| 26.05.26 | Team Falcons – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 5.00 | 38 | lost | -38 | -13735 |
| 26.05.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 38 | won | +0 | -13697 |
| 26.05.26 | GLYPH – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.60 | 35 | won | +21 | -13698 |
| 24.05.26 | Recrent Team – Solo Team | Recrent Team | 12.00 | 39 | lost | -39 | -13719 |
| 23.05.26 | Miposhka Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.03 | 39 | won | +1 | -13680 |
| 22.05.26 | Aurora Gaming – Tundra Esports | Tundra Esports | 11.00 | 44 | lost | -44 | -13681 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.