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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-6661u
ROI
-52.9%
win rate
38%
bets
1259
drawdown
666%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-154u
period 24top-up-218u
period 23top-up-250u
period 22top-up-289u
period 21top-up-332u
period 20top-up-329u
period 19top-up-174u
period 18top-up-398u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale15641%-1867-26.2%180.7%Select
1% of bankroll125938%-5819-52.7%581.7%Select
Flat (10 units)125938%-6661-52.9%666%Selected
2% of bankroll125938%-10234-52.4%1022.8%Select
5% of bankroll125938%-18095-51.5%1806.9%Select
Quarter Kelly7503%-21402-95%2140.2%Select
10% of bankroll125938%-22822-49.9%2275.6%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1259, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0010lost-10-5661
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.0010lost-10-5651
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.0010lost-10-5641
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.0310won+0-5631
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.0010lost-10-5632
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.3010lost-10-5622
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0010lost-10-5612
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0010lost-10-5602
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0010lost-10-5592
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.0010lost-10-5582
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersLevel UP1.2210won+2-5572
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink1.2510won+2-5574
08.08.26Ilbirs eSports – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink1.0110won+0-5576
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.0010lost-10-5576
06.08.26No Hoodwink – Level UPLevel UP2.2510won+12-5566
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w Team1w Team15.0010lost-10-5579
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersRune Eaters12.0010lost-10-5569
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0010lost-10-5559
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers1.2610won+3-5549
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.3010won+3-5551
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0010lost-10-5554
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingLGD Gaming5.0010lost-10-5544
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0010lost-10-5534
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.0610won+1-5524
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamNS Team1.2010won+2-5525
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceDaxak Team11.0010lost-10-5527
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceMidas Club14.0010lost-10-5517
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.1710won+2-5507
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.0010lost-10-5509
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXREKONIX1.0510won+1-5499
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion7.0010lost-10-5499
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.0010lost-10-5489
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.0010lost-10-5479
30.07.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0010lost-10-5469
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0110won+0-5459
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team1w Team1.1210won+1-5459
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.0210won+0-5461
29.07.26NS Team – Stray TeamNS Team13.0010lost-10-5461
28.07.26YBN Team – Team aviceTeam avice1.0110won+0-5451
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.0110won+0-5451
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamNS Team1.2510won+2-5451
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Level UPLevel UP1.0610won+1-5453
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSportsNemiga Gaming1.8010lost-10-5454
21.07.26Team Lynx – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy2.4010won+14-5444
20.07.26Level UP – Ilbirs eSportsLevel UP1.0210won+0-5458
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming3.6010lost-10-5458
20.07.26Team Lynx – PuckChampPuckChamp1.0210won+0-5448
19.07.26Vici Gaming – Team YandexVici Gaming15.0010lost-10-5448
18.07.26Team Yandex – PARIVISIONTeam Yandex6.0010lost-10-5438
18.07.26BETBOOM Team – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0010lost-10-5428
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamNigma Galaxy15.0010lost-10-5418
14.07.26Team Liquid – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.0010lost-10-5408
12.07.261w Team – Team Yandex1w Team15.0010lost-10-5398
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisREKONIX1.0110won+0-5388
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyPlayTime5.8010lost-10-5389
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritREKONIX15.0010lost-10-5379
10.07.26Team Nemesis – Vici GamingTeam Nemesis13.0010lost-10-5369
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleInner Circle15.0010lost-10-5359
08.07.26Vici Gaming – PARIVISIONVici Gaming15.0010lost-10-5349
08.07.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis15.0010lost-10-5339
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.