?

Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 2Martingalepayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-2095u
ROI
-33.2%
win rate
42%
bets
156
drawdown
209.5%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Martingale

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+0u
period 24profit withdrawn+0u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22profit withdrawn+0u
period 21profit withdrawn+0u
period 20profit withdrawn+0u
period 19profit withdrawn+0u
period 18profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale15642%-2095-33.2%209.5%Selected
1% of bankroll125938%-5795-52.4%579.3%Select
Flat (10 units)125938%-6627-52.6%662.5%Select
2% of bankroll125938%-10201-52.1%1019.5%Select
5% of bankroll125938%-18070-51.3%1804.5%Select
Quarter Kelly7513%-21385-94.7%2138.5%Select
10% of bankroll125938%-22821-49.7%2275.6%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 156, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.11.24L1ga Team – Passion UAL1ga Team1.25267lost-267-1095
20.11.24Team Golovach – Stray TeamStray Team2.10160lost-160-828
20.11.241w Team – PARIVISION1w Team14.0080lost-80-668
20.11.24GoodWin Team – Team EpheyTeam Ephey1.4240lost-40-588
20.11.24Natus Vincere Junior – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming9.0020lost-20-548
19.11.24Stray Team – Team EpheyTeam Ephey13.0010lost-10-528
19.11.24One Move – Natus Vincere JuniorOne Move1.6510won+6-518
19.11.24GoodWin Team – Stariy_bog TeamGoodWin Team1.0120won+0-525
19.11.24YBN Team – Team EpheyYBN Team13.0010lost-10-525
19.11.24Греция – ШвецияГреция1.4280won+34-515
19.11.24Gaimin Gladiators – Team SecretTeam Secret2.8040lost-40-549
19.11.24Palianytsia – One MovePalianytsia1.5820lost-20-509
19.11.24Natus Vincere Junior – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming12.0010lost-10-489
18.11.24TpaBoMaH Team – Stariy_bog TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.0120won+0-479
18.11.24Team Cake – Team EpheyTeam Ephey1.8510lost-10-479
18.11.24Кыргызстан – ШвецияШвеция1.0120won+0-469
18.11.24Palianytsia – Dragon EsportsPalianytsia9.0010lost-10-469
18.11.24Филиппины – ГрецияГреция1.0610won+1-459
17.11.24Stray Team – YBN TeamStray Team1.02160won+3-460
17.11.24Stariy_bog Team – Team GolovachStariy_bog Team12.0080lost-80-463
17.11.24Беларусь – БолгарияБолгария1.0540lost-40-383
17.11.24AVULUS – OGOG13.0020lost-20-343
17.11.24Team Ephey – Team DaxaoTeam Daxao1.9010lost-10-323
17.11.24Саудовская Аравия – ШвецияШвеция1.0140won+0-313
17.11.24Zero Tenacity – Passion UAZero Tenacity2.8020lost-20-313
17.11.24Gaimin Gladiators – OGGaimin Gladiators12.0010lost-10-293
17.11.24Египет – БолгарияБолгария1.0120won+0-283
17.11.24BOOM Esports – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming8.5010lost-10-284
17.11.24Xtreme Gaming – Yakult BrothersXtreme Gaming1.0110won+0-274
17.11.24Fusion – beastcoastbeastcoast1.0240won+1-274
17.11.24Atlantic City – Shopify RebellionShopify Rebellion2.5020lost-20-274
17.11.24Heroic – Looking for OrgLooking for Org6.6010lost-10-254
17.11.24Apex Genesis – photographersApex Genesis1.0120won+0-244
16.11.24photographers – TiltedBoysTiltedBoys9.0010lost-10-245
16.11.24Blade breakers – Infinity EsportsInfinity Esports1.0110won+0-235
16.11.24GoodWin Team – Team GolovachGoodWin Team1.1710won+2-235
16.11.24Болгария – МьянмаМьянма1.78320won+250-236
16.11.24Турция – АвстралияАвстралия5.80160lost-160-486
16.11.24Монголия – СШАСША9.0080lost-80-326
16.11.24Team Аналитика Ошибок – GoodWin TeamGoodWin Team1.8540lost-40-246
16.11.24Саудовская Аравия – ВенесуэлаВенесуэла1.2520lost-20-206
16.11.24Кыргызстан – АргентинаАргентина4.5010lost-10-186
15.11.24Tundra Esports – AVULUSAVULUS1.2610won+3-176
15.11.24TiltedBoys – Mouth EsportsMouth Esports2.1020won+22-179
15.11.24Team Liquid – MOUZMOUZ13.0010lost-10-201
15.11.24Yakult Brothers – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming1.1020won+2-191
15.11.241w Team – Blue SubmarineBlue Submarine11.0010lost-10-193
15.11.24Aurora Gaming – CastawakeAurora Gaming1.0110won+0-183
14.11.24Myth Avenue Gaming – Call911Myth Avenue Gaming1.2240won+9-183
07.11.24PARIVISION – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming3.6020lost-20-192
06.11.24Xtreme Gaming – Team LiquidXtreme Gaming15.0010lost-10-172
06.11.24PARIVISION – Tundra EsportsTundra Esports1.03160won+5-162
05.11.24Team Liquid – Looking for OrgLooking for Org7.5080lost-80-166
04.11.24Team Spirit – Looking for OrgLooking for Org2.4040lost-40-86
04.11.24Team Falcons – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming14.0020lost-20-46
03.11.24Tundra Esports – Team FalconsTundra Esports4.8010lost-10-26
02.11.24Team Spirit – Tundra EsportsTeam Spirit1.2010won+2-16
01.11.24Xtreme Gaming – Looking for OrgLooking for Org1.98160won+157-18
01.11.24Tundra Esports – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.0080lost-80-175
29.10.24Azure Ray – Team SpiritAzure Ray10.0040lost-40-95
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.