Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-1000u
ROI
-100%
win rate
0%
bets
7
drawdown
100%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
Martingale
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2profit withdrawn+0u
period 1top-up-1000u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 68 | 28% | -264 | -41.6% | 28.4% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 68 | 28% | -277 | -40.8% | 29.8% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 68 | 28% | -504 | -42.5% | 54.2% | Select |
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1000 | -100% | 100% | Selected |
| 5% of bankroll | 68 | 28% | -1097 | -44.6% | 117.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 68 | 28% | -1770 | -47% | 189% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 7, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.08.26 | Ice Cream Men – Team Kinetix | Team Kinetix | 1.89 | 370 | lost | -370 | 0 |
| 28.08.26 | PuckChamp – Inner Circle | PuckChamp | 1.89 | 320 | lost | -320 | 370 |
| 27.08.26 | Nemiga Gaming – summer bear | Nemiga Gaming | 1.95 | 160 | lost | -160 | 690 |
| 25.08.26 | PuckChamp – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 1.95 | 80 | lost | -80 | 850 |
| 24.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 930 |
| 24.08.26 | Inner Circle – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 1.89 | 20 | lost | -20 | 970 |
| 23.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | PARIVISION | 2.02 | 10 | lost | -10 | 990 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.