Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-1903u
ROI
-49.8%
win rate
28%
bets
69
drawdown
190.3%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
10% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-445u
period 2top-up-838u
period 1top-up-620u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 69 | 28% | -287 | -44.5% | 28.7% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 69 | 28% | -301 | -43.6% | 30.1% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 69 | 28% | -546 | -45.4% | 54.6% | Select |
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1000 | -100% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 69 | 28% | -1187 | -47.6% | 118.7% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 69 | 28% | -1903 | -49.8% | 190.3% | Selected |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 69, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | Team Resilience – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 2.28 | 62 | lost | -62 | -903 |
| 13.10.26 | Stray Team – Stariy_bog Team | Stray Team | 1.89 | 57 | won | +50 | -841 |
| 13.10.26 | Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ | The WarriorsQ | 1.95 | 63 | lost | -63 | -892 |
| 13.10.26 | Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 2.43 | 70 | lost | -70 | -829 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Dawning | 1.95 | 78 | lost | -78 | -759 |
| 12.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Dawn Bulls | The WarriorsQ | 2.11 | 86 | lost | -86 | -681 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.12 | 96 | lost | -96 | -595 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 1.91 | 88 | won | +80 | -499 |
| 09.10.26 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 2.14 | 98 | lost | -98 | -579 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.13 | 109 | lost | -109 | -481 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | HULIGANI | 2.08 | 121 | lost | -121 | -373 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Spirit | 2.05 | 109 | won | +115 | -252 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 2.19 | 98 | won | +116 | -367 |
| 03.10.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.92 | 108 | lost | -108 | -483 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | 1w Team | 2.03 | 98 | won | +101 | -374 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.92 | 90 | won | +83 | -475 |
| 01.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 2.06 | 100 | lost | -100 | -558 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | PARIVISION | 2.07 | 15 | won | +16 | -458 |
| 30.09.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | BETBOOM TEAM | 1.89 | 13 | won | +12 | -474 |
| 29.09.26 | 1w Team – Natus Vincere | 1w Team | 2.75 | 11 | won | +20 | -486 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | avice Team | 1.95 | 13 | lost | -13 | -506 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | LGD Gaming | 2.46 | 14 | lost | -14 | -493 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | avice Team | 1.92 | 16 | lost | -16 | -479 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Team Synapse | 2.43 | 14 | won | +20 | -463 |
| 25.09.26 | Solo Team – avice Team | Solo Team | 1.96 | 15 | lost | -15 | -483 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Team Nemesis | 2.21 | 17 | lost | -17 | -468 |
| 24.09.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.90 | 19 | lost | -19 | -451 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.96 | 21 | lost | -21 | -432 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.97 | 23 | lost | -23 | -411 |
| 24.09.26 | Two Move – Team Lynx | Two Move | 1.99 | 26 | lost | -26 | -388 |
| 24.09.26 | Daxak Team – gpK~ Team | gpK~ Team | 2.54 | 29 | lost | -29 | -362 |
| 24.09.26 | YBN Team – Rostik Team | YBN Team | 2.10 | 32 | lost | -32 | -333 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.35 | 28 | won | +38 | -301 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | avice Team | 2.18 | 31 | lost | -31 | -339 |
| 22.09.26 | Natus Vincere – 1w Team | 1w Team | 2.37 | 35 | lost | -35 | -308 |
| 22.09.26 | Conventus Stellarum – Yakult Brothers | Conventus Stellarum | 1.95 | 32 | won | +30 | -273 |
| 21.09.26 | YBN Team – NS Team | NS Team | 1.95 | 29 | won | +28 | -303 |
| 21.09.26 | Two Move – Zero Tenacity | Two Move | 1.90 | 27 | won | +24 | -331 |
| 21.09.26 | Team Nemesis – MOUZ | MOUZ | 2.22 | 29 | lost | -29 | -355 |
| 21.09.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Kalmychata | Nemiga Gaming | 2.41 | 33 | lost | -33 | -325 |
| 21.09.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Cobra | Team Cobra | 1.90 | 36 | lost | -36 | -293 |
| 20.09.26 | Inner Circle – Yellow Submarine | Inner Circle | 2.21 | 40 | lost | -40 | -256 |
| 20.09.26 | PlayTime – Team Cobra | PlayTime | 1.89 | 45 | lost | -45 | -216 |
| 20.09.26 | Conventus Stellarum – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.89 | 41 | won | +37 | -171 |
| 19.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Yakult Brothers | LGD Gaming | 1.95 | 38 | won | +36 | -207 |
| 18.09.26 | uralan – Two Move | uralan | 1.89 | 42 | lost | -42 | -243 |
| 18.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Yellow Submarine | Team Spirit Academy | 1.99 | 47 | lost | -47 | -201 |
| 17.09.26 | Kalmychata – uralan | Kalmychata | 1.95 | 42 | won | +41 | -155 |
| 17.09.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Team Lynx | Nemiga Gaming | 2.25 | 47 | lost | -47 | -195 |
| 16.09.26 | Inner Circle – uralan | Inner Circle | 1.90 | 52 | lost | -52 | -148 |
| 13.09.26 | Recrent Team – Stariy_Bog Club | Recrent Team | 2.02 | 58 | lost | -58 | -96 |
| 12.09.26 | Team Nemesis – InterActive Philippines | InterActive Philippines | 1.95 | 65 | lost | -65 | -37 |
| 10.09.26 | GamerLegion – Klim Sani4 | GamerLegion | 2.24 | 72 | lost | -72 | 27 |
| 09.09.26 | Klim Sani4 – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 2.06 | 80 | lost | -80 | 99 |
| 09.09.26 | Natus Vincere – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.96 | 89 | lost | -89 | 179 |
| 08.09.26 | MOUZ – GamerLegion | MOUZ | 1.96 | 99 | lost | -99 | 268 |
| 07.09.26 | GamerLegion – Pipsqueak+4 | GamerLegion | 1.97 | 90 | won | +87 | 367 |
| 01.09.26 | Zero Tenacity – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 1.95 | 100 | lost | -100 | 280 |
| 30.08.26 | Natus Vincere – MOUZ | Natus Vincere | 1.89 | 35 | won | +31 | 380 |
| 29.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 2.02 | 39 | lost | -39 | 349 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.