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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-22822u
ROI
-49.9%
win rate
38%
bets
1259
drawdown
2275.6%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

10% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-807u
period 24top-up-902u
period 23top-up-939u
period 22top-up-956u
period 21top-up-972u
period 20top-up-969u
period 19top-up-857u
period 18top-up-985u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale15641%-1867-26.2%180.7%Select
1% of bankroll125938%-5819-52.7%581.7%Select
Flat (10 units)125938%-6661-52.9%666%Select
2% of bankroll125938%-10234-52.4%1022.8%Select
5% of bankroll125938%-18095-51.5%1806.9%Select
Quarter Kelly7503%-21402-95%2140.2%Select
10% of bankroll125938%-22822-49.9%2275.6%Selected
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1259, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0021lost-21-21822
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.0024lost-24-21800
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.0026lost-26-21776
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.0326won+1-21750
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.0029lost-29-21751
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.3033lost-33-21721
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0036lost-36-21689
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0040lost-40-21653
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0045lost-45-21613
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.0050lost-50-21568
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersLevel UP1.2248won+11-21519
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink1.2547won+12-21529
08.08.26Ilbirs eSports – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink1.0147won+0-21541
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.0053lost-53-21542
06.08.26No Hoodwink – Level UPLevel UP2.2547won+58-21489
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w Team1w Team15.0052lost-52-21547
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersRune Eaters12.0058lost-58-21495
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0064lost-64-21438
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers1.2662won+16-21374
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.3061won+18-21390
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0067lost-67-21408
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingLGD Gaming5.0075lost-75-21341
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0083lost-83-21266
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.0683won+5-21183
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamNS Team1.2081won+16-21188
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceDaxak Team11.0090lost-90-21204
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceMidas Club14.00100lost-100-21114
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.1710won+2-21014
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.0011lost-11-21016
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXREKONIX1.0511won+1-21005
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion7.0012lost-12-21006
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.0013lost-13-20994
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.0015lost-15-20981
30.07.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0016lost-16-20966
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0116won+0-20950
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team1w Team1.1216won+2-20950
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.0216won+0-20952
29.07.26NS Team – Stray TeamNS Team13.0018lost-18-20952
28.07.26YBN Team – Team aviceTeam avice1.0118won+0-20934
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.0118won+0-20935
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamNS Team1.2517won+4-20935
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Level UPLevel UP1.0617won+1-20939
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSportsNemiga Gaming1.8019lost-19-20940
21.07.26Team Lynx – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy2.4017won+23-20921
20.07.26Level UP – Ilbirs eSportsLevel UP1.0217won+0-20944
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming3.6019lost-19-20945
20.07.26Team Lynx – PuckChampPuckChamp1.0219won+0-20926
19.07.26Vici Gaming – Team YandexVici Gaming15.0021lost-21-20927
18.07.26Team Yandex – PARIVISIONTeam Yandex6.0023lost-23-20906
18.07.26BETBOOM Team – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0025lost-25-20883
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamNigma Galaxy15.0028lost-28-20858
14.07.26Team Liquid – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.0031lost-31-20829
12.07.261w Team – Team Yandex1w Team15.0035lost-35-20798
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisREKONIX1.0135won+0-20763
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyPlayTime5.8039lost-39-20763
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritREKONIX15.0043lost-43-20725
10.07.26Team Nemesis – Vici GamingTeam Nemesis13.0048lost-48-20682
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleInner Circle15.0053lost-53-20634
08.07.26Vici Gaming – PARIVISIONVici Gaming15.0059lost-59-20581
08.07.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis15.0066lost-66-20522
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.