Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-1867u
ROI
-26.2%
win rate
41%
bets
156
drawdown
180.7%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+0u
period 24profit withdrawn+0u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22profit withdrawn+0u
period 21profit withdrawn+0u
period 20profit withdrawn+0u
period 19profit withdrawn+0u
period 18profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 156 | 41% | -1867 | -26.2% | 180.7% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1259 | 38% | -5819 | -52.7% | 581.7% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1259 | 38% | -6661 | -52.9% | 666% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1259 | 38% | -10234 | -52.4% | 1022.8% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1259 | 38% | -18095 | -51.5% | 1806.9% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 750 | 3% | -21402 | -95% | 2140.2% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1259 | 38% | -22822 | -49.9% | 2275.6% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 156, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.11.24 | L1ga Team – Passion UA | L1ga Team | 1.25 | 267 | lost | -267 | -867 |
| 20.11.24 | Team Golovach – Stray Team | Stray Team | 2.10 | 160 | lost | -160 | -600 |
| 20.11.24 | 1w Team – PARIVISION | 1w Team | 14.00 | 80 | lost | -80 | -440 |
| 20.11.24 | GoodWin Team – Team Ephey | Team Ephey | 1.42 | 40 | lost | -40 | -360 |
| 20.11.24 | Natus Vincere Junior – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 9.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | -320 |
| 19.11.24 | Stray Team – Team Ephey | Team Ephey | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -300 |
| 19.11.24 | One Move – Natus Vincere Junior | One Move | 1.65 | 10 | won | +6 | -290 |
| 19.11.24 | GoodWin Team – Stariy_bog Team | GoodWin Team | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | -297 |
| 19.11.24 | YBN Team – Team Ephey | YBN Team | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -297 |
| 19.11.24 | Греция – Швеция | Греция | 1.42 | 80 | won | +34 | -287 |
| 19.11.24 | Gaimin Gladiators – Team Secret | Team Secret | 2.80 | 40 | lost | -40 | -320 |
| 19.11.24 | Palianytsia – One Move | Palianytsia | 1.58 | 20 | lost | -20 | -280 |
| 19.11.24 | Natus Vincere Junior – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -260 |
| 18.11.24 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stariy_bog Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | -250 |
| 18.11.24 | Team Cake – Team Ephey | Team Ephey | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | -251 |
| 18.11.24 | Кыргызстан – Швеция | Швеция | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | -241 |
| 18.11.24 | Palianytsia – Dragon Esports | Palianytsia | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -241 |
| 18.11.24 | Филиппины – Греция | Греция | 1.06 | 10 | won | +1 | -231 |
| 17.11.24 | Stray Team – YBN Team | Stray Team | 1.02 | 160 | won | +3 | -231 |
| 17.11.24 | Stariy_bog Team – Team Golovach | Stariy_bog Team | 12.00 | 80 | lost | -80 | -235 |
| 17.11.24 | Беларусь – Болгария | Болгария | 1.05 | 40 | lost | -40 | -155 |
| 17.11.24 | AVULUS – OG | OG | 13.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | -115 |
| 17.11.24 | Team Ephey – Team Daxao | Team Daxao | 1.90 | 10 | lost | -10 | -95 |
| 17.11.24 | Саудовская Аравия – Швеция | Швеция | 1.01 | 40 | won | +0 | -85 |
| 17.11.24 | Zero Tenacity – Passion UA | Zero Tenacity | 2.80 | 20 | lost | -20 | -85 |
| 17.11.24 | Gaimin Gladiators – OG | Gaimin Gladiators | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -65 |
| 17.11.24 | Египет – Болгария | Болгария | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | -55 |
| 17.11.24 | BOOM Esports – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 8.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | -55 |
| 17.11.24 | Xtreme Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Xtreme Gaming | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -45 |
| 17.11.24 | Fusion – beastcoast | beastcoast | 1.02 | 40 | won | +1 | -45 |
| 17.11.24 | Atlantic City – Shopify Rebellion | Shopify Rebellion | 2.50 | 20 | lost | -20 | -46 |
| 17.11.24 | Heroic – Looking for Org | Looking for Org | 6.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | -26 |
| 17.11.24 | Apex Genesis – photographers | Apex Genesis | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | -16 |
| 16.11.24 | photographers – TiltedBoys | TiltedBoys | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -16 |
| 16.11.24 | Blade breakers – Infinity Esports | Infinity Esports | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -6 |
| 16.11.24 | GoodWin Team – Team Golovach | GoodWin Team | 1.17 | 10 | won | +2 | -6 |
| 16.11.24 | Болгария – Мьянма | Мьянма | 1.78 | 320 | won | +250 | -8 |
| 16.11.24 | Турция – Австралия | Австралия | 5.80 | 160 | lost | -160 | -258 |
| 16.11.24 | Монголия – США | США | 9.00 | 80 | lost | -80 | -98 |
| 16.11.24 | Team Аналитика Ошибок – GoodWin Team | GoodWin Team | 1.85 | 40 | lost | -40 | -18 |
| 16.11.24 | Саудовская Аравия – Венесуэла | Венесуэла | 1.25 | 20 | lost | -20 | 22 |
| 16.11.24 | Кыргызстан – Аргентина | Аргентина | 4.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | 42 |
| 15.11.24 | Tundra Esports – AVULUS | AVULUS | 1.26 | 10 | won | +3 | 52 |
| 15.11.24 | TiltedBoys – Mouth Esports | Mouth Esports | 2.10 | 20 | won | +22 | 50 |
| 15.11.24 | Team Liquid – MOUZ | MOUZ | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 28 |
| 15.11.24 | Yakult Brothers – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 1.10 | 20 | won | +2 | 38 |
| 15.11.24 | 1w Team – Blue Submarine | Blue Submarine | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 36 |
| 15.11.24 | Aurora Gaming – Castawake | Aurora Gaming | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 46 |
| 14.11.24 | Myth Avenue Gaming – Call911 | Myth Avenue Gaming | 1.22 | 40 | won | +9 | 46 |
| 07.11.24 | PARIVISION – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 3.60 | 20 | lost | -20 | 37 |
| 06.11.24 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Liquid | Xtreme Gaming | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 57 |
| 06.11.24 | PARIVISION – Tundra Esports | Tundra Esports | 1.03 | 160 | won | +5 | 67 |
| 05.11.24 | Team Liquid – Looking for Org | Looking for Org | 7.50 | 80 | lost | -80 | 62 |
| 04.11.24 | Team Spirit – Looking for Org | Looking for Org | 2.40 | 40 | lost | -40 | 142 |
| 04.11.24 | Team Falcons – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 14.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 182 |
| 03.11.24 | Tundra Esports – Team Falcons | Tundra Esports | 4.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | 202 |
| 02.11.24 | Team Spirit – Tundra Esports | Team Spirit | 1.20 | 10 | won | +2 | 212 |
| 01.11.24 | Xtreme Gaming – Looking for Org | Looking for Org | 1.98 | 160 | won | +157 | 210 |
| 01.11.24 | Tundra Esports – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 80 | lost | -80 | 53 |
| 29.10.24 | Azure Ray – Team Spirit | Azure Ray | 10.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | 133 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.