Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-5795u
ROI
-52.4%
win rate
38%
bets
1259
drawdown
579.3%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-152u
period 24top-up-197u
period 23top-up-224u
period 22top-up-253u
period 21top-up-284u
period 20top-up-281u
period 19top-up-162u
period 18top-up-330u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 156 | 42% | -2095 | -33.2% | 209.5% | Selected |
| 1% of bankroll | 1259 | 38% | -5795 | -52.4% | 579.3% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1259 | 38% | -6627 | -52.6% | 662.5% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1259 | 38% | -10201 | -52.1% | 1019.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1259 | 38% | -18070 | -51.3% | 1804.5% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 751 | 3% | -21385 | -94.7% | 2138.5% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1259 | 38% | -22821 | -49.7% | 2275.6% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1259, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4795 |
| 20.08.26 | PARIVISION – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4786 |
| 16.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Yandex | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4777 |
| 15.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 1.03 | 9 | won | +0 | -4769 |
| 15.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 14.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4769 |
| 15.08.26 | 1w Team – Team Liquid | 1w Team | 5.30 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4760 |
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4751 |
| 15.08.26 | Team Falcons – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4742 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4733 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4724 |
| 12.08.26 | Level UP – Rune Eaters | Level UP | 1.22 | 9 | won | +2 | -4715 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – No Hoodwink | No Hoodwink | 1.25 | 9 | won | +2 | -4717 |
| 08.08.26 | Power Rangers – Team Syntax | Team Syntax | 12.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4719 |
| 07.08.26 | Zero Tenacity – No Hoodwink | No Hoodwink | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4710 |
| 06.08.26 | No Hoodwink – Level UP | Level UP | 2.25 | 9 | won | +12 | -4700 |
| 05.08.26 | Team Liquid – 1w Team | 1w Team | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4712 |
| 04.08.26 | Yakult Brothers – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 12.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4702 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 10.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -4693 |
| 03.08.26 | Vici Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 1.26 | 10 | won | +2 | -4683 |
| 03.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 1.30 | 10 | won | +3 | -4686 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | GLYPH | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -4689 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Liquid – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 5.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -4679 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | OG | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -4669 |
| 02.08.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.06 | 10 | won | +1 | -4659 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | NS Team | 1.20 | 10 | won | +2 | -4660 |
| 01.08.26 | Daxak Team – Team avice | Daxak Team | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -4662 |
| 01.08.26 | Midas Club – Team Resilience | Midas Club | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -4652 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.17 | 8 | won | +1 | -4642 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Yakult Brothers | 14.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -4643 |
| 31.07.26 | L1ga Team – REKONIX | REKONIX | 1.05 | 8 | won | +0 | -4635 |
| 31.07.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 7.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -4636 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 11.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -4628 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 3.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -4619 |
| 30.07.26 | Team Falcons – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -4611 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 1.01 | 8 | won | +0 | -4603 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.12 | 8 | won | +1 | -4603 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.02 | 8 | won | +0 | -4604 |
| 29.07.26 | NS Team – Stray Team | NS Team | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -4604 |
| 28.07.26 | YBN Team – Team avice | Team avice | 1.01 | 8 | won | +0 | -4595 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team – TpaBoMaH Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 1.01 | 8 | won | +0 | -4595 |
| 27.07.26 | NS Team – Rostik Team | NS Team | 1.25 | 8 | won | +2 | -4596 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Level UP | Level UP | 1.06 | 8 | won | +1 | -4598 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSports | Nemiga Gaming | 1.80 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4598 |
| 21.07.26 | Team Lynx – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 2.40 | 8 | won | +12 | -4590 |
| 20.07.26 | Level UP – Ilbirs eSports | Level UP | 1.02 | 8 | won | +0 | -4601 |
| 20.07.26 | Zero Tenacity – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 3.60 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4602 |
| 20.07.26 | Team Lynx – PuckChamp | PuckChamp | 1.02 | 9 | won | +0 | -4593 |
| 19.07.26 | Vici Gaming – Team Yandex | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4593 |
| 18.07.26 | Team Yandex – PARIVISION | Team Yandex | 6.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4585 |
| 18.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4576 |
| 17.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM Team | Nigma Galaxy | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4567 |
| 14.07.26 | Team Liquid – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4558 |
| 12.07.26 | 1w Team – Team Yandex | 1w Team | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4549 |
| 12.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Nemesis | REKONIX | 1.01 | 9 | won | +0 | -4540 |
| 11.07.26 | PlayTime – Nigma Galaxy | PlayTime | 5.80 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4540 |
| 10.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Spirit | REKONIX | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4531 |
| 10.07.26 | Team Nemesis – Vici Gaming | Team Nemesis | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4522 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Yandex – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -4513 |
| 08.07.26 | Vici Gaming – PARIVISION | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -4503 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Spirit – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -4494 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.