Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-284u
ROI
-22.7%
win rate
38%
bets
128
drawdown
29.9%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
1% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-71u
period 2top-up-96u
period 1top-up-117u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 128 | 38% | -284 | -22.7% | 29.9% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 128 | 38% | -292 | -22.8% | 30.8% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 128 | 38% | -551 | -22.5% | 57.4% | Select |
| Martingale | 8 | 13% | -1000 | -98.1% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 128 | 38% | -1246 | -21.8% | 126.2% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 128 | 38% | -2067 | -20.4% | 200.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 128, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE Team | ALOHADANCE Team | 1.89 | 9 | won | +8 | 716 |
| 14.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Shadow Dance | The WarriorsQ | 1.94 | 9 | lost | -9 | 708 |
| 13.10.26 | Stray Team – Stariy_bog Team | Stray Team | 1.89 | 9 | won | +8 | 717 |
| 13.10.26 | Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ | The WarriorsQ | 1.95 | 9 | lost | -9 | 709 |
| 13.10.26 | Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 2.43 | 9 | lost | -9 | 718 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Dawning | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 728 |
| 12.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Dawn Bulls | The WarriorsQ | 2.11 | 10 | lost | -10 | 737 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.12 | 10 | lost | -10 | 747 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 1.91 | 10 | won | +9 | 757 |
| 09.10.26 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 2.14 | 10 | lost | -10 | 748 |
| 08.10.26 | LEGION – BlasterbI | LEGION | 1.89 | 10 | won | +9 | 758 |
| 08.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.91 | 10 | lost | -10 | 749 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.13 | 10 | lost | -10 | 759 |
| 07.10.26 | CyberHero – BlasterbI | CyberHero | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 769 |
| 07.10.26 | Team Synapse – LEGION | LEGION | 1.92 | 10 | won | +9 | 778 |
| 07.10.26 | MOUZ – CyberHero | MOUZ | 2.19 | 10 | lost | -10 | 769 |
| 06.10.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Team Synapse | 2.20 | 10 | won | +12 | 779 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | HULIGANI | 2.08 | 10 | lost | -10 | 768 |
| 05.10.26 | MOUZ – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.03 | 10 | lost | -10 | 778 |
| 05.10.26 | LEGION – BlasterbI | BlasterbI | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 788 |
| 05.10.26 | Yellow Submarine – CyberHero | CyberHero | 2.23 | 10 | lost | -10 | 798 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Spirit | 2.05 | 10 | won | +11 | 808 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 2.19 | 10 | won | +12 | 797 |
| 03.10.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.92 | 10 | lost | -10 | 785 |
| 02.10.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | OG | 1.90 | 10 | won | +9 | 795 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | 1w Team | 2.03 | 10 | won | +10 | 786 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.92 | 10 | won | +9 | 776 |
| 01.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 2.06 | 10 | lost | -10 | 767 |
| 01.10.26 | MOUZ – OG | MOUZ | 2.03 | 10 | lost | -10 | 777 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | PARIVISION | 2.07 | 9 | won | +10 | 787 |
| 30.09.26 | Team Yandex – MOUZ | MOUZ | 2.68 | 9 | lost | -9 | 778 |
| 30.09.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | BETBOOM TEAM | 1.89 | 9 | won | +8 | 787 |
| 29.09.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.90 | 9 | lost | -9 | 779 |
| 29.09.26 | 1w Team – Natus Vincere | 1w Team | 2.75 | 9 | won | +16 | 788 |
| 29.09.26 | Team Spirit – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 2.05 | 9 | lost | -9 | 772 |
| 27.09.26 | YBN Team – Cake Team | YBN Team | 2.13 | 9 | lost | -9 | 781 |
| 27.09.26 | Daxak Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 2.23 | 9 | lost | -9 | 790 |
| 27.09.26 | Stray Team – YBN Team | YBN Team | 2.05 | 9 | won | +10 | 799 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | avice Team | 1.95 | 9 | lost | -9 | 790 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | LGD Gaming | 2.46 | 9 | lost | -9 | 799 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | avice Team | 1.92 | 9 | lost | -9 | 808 |
| 25.09.26 | Xtreme Gaming – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.01 | 9 | won | +9 | 818 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Team Synapse | 2.43 | 9 | won | +13 | 808 |
| 25.09.26 | Solo Team – avice Team | Solo Team | 1.96 | 9 | lost | -9 | 795 |
| 25.09.26 | GamerLegion – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.95 | 9 | lost | -9 | 804 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Team Nemesis | 2.21 | 9 | lost | -9 | 814 |
| 24.09.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.90 | 9 | lost | -9 | 823 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.96 | 10 | lost | -10 | 832 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.97 | 10 | lost | -10 | 842 |
| 24.09.26 | Two Move – Team Lynx | Two Move | 1.99 | 10 | lost | -10 | 852 |
| 24.09.26 | Daxak Team – gpK~ Team | gpK~ Team | 2.54 | 10 | lost | -10 | 862 |
| 24.09.26 | Natus Vincere – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.47 | 10 | won | +14 | 871 |
| 24.09.26 | YBN Team – Rostik Team | YBN Team | 2.10 | 10 | lost | -10 | 857 |
| 23.09.26 | Stray Team – NS Team | NS Team | 2.01 | 10 | lost | -10 | 867 |
| 23.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Conventus Stellarum | Conventus Stellarum | 2.06 | 10 | lost | -10 | 877 |
| 22.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Aurora Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.90 | 10 | lost | -10 | 887 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | avice Team | 2.18 | 10 | lost | -10 | 897 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.35 | 10 | won | +14 | 907 |
| 22.09.26 | MOUZ – Hokori | MOUZ | 2.00 | 10 | won | +10 | 894 |
| 22.09.26 | Natus Vincere – 1w Team | 1w Team | 2.37 | 10 | lost | -10 | 884 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.