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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-13388u
ROI
-52.7%
win rate
38%
bets
2542
drawdown
1337.5%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-290u
period 24top-up-363u
period 23top-up-482u
period 22top-up-744u
period 21top-up-508u
period 20top-up-705u
period 19top-up-478u
period 18top-up-767u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale8944%-1259-36.8%125.9%Select
1% of bankroll254238%-10222-52.4%1021.3%Select
Flat (10 units)254238%-13388-52.7%1337.5%Selected
2% of bankroll254238%-16075-52.2%1604.5%Select
5% of bankroll254238%-22691-51.5%2258.3%Select
Quarter Kelly15203%-24227-93.2%2422.7%Select
10% of bankroll254238%-24531-50.8%2429.8%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2542, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0010lost-10-12388
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.0010lost-10-12378
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.0010lost-10-12368
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.0110won+0-12358
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.0310won+0-12358
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.0010lost-10-12358
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingBETBOOM Team15.0010lost-10-12348
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.3010lost-10-12338
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0010lost-10-12328
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.0010lost-10-12318
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0010lost-10-12308
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyLGD Gaming15.0010lost-10-12298
14.08.26Team Yandex – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.1710won+2-12288
13.08.26Team Falcons – PARIVISIONTeam Falcons1.8010lost-10-12290
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyOG5.8010lost-10-12280
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0010lost-10-12270
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.0010lost-10-12260
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersLevel UP1.2210won+2-12250
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityRune Eaters1.0110won+0-12252
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0110won+0-12252
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZRune Eaters1.0110won+0-12252
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereRune Eaters15.0010lost-10-12252
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink1.2510won+2-12242
08.08.26Ilbirs eSports – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink1.0110won+0-12245
07.08.26Team Jenz – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming1.0210won+0-12245
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.0010lost-10-12245
06.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Power RangersIlbirs eSports6.6010lost-10-12235
06.08.26No Hoodwink – Level UPLevel UP2.2510won+12-12225
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w Team1w Team15.0010lost-10-12238
05.08.26PlayTime – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers15.0010lost-10-12228
05.08.261w Team – BETBOOM Team1w Team1.0110won+0-12218
04.08.26Team Liquid – Team FalconsTeam Liquid13.0010lost-10-12218
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersRune Eaters12.0010lost-10-12208
04.08.26PlayTime – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience13.0010lost-10-12198
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0010lost-10-12188
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers1.2610won+3-12178
03.08.26OG – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0010lost-10-12180
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.3010won+3-12170
03.08.26LGD Gaming – 1w Team1w Team1.0110won+0-12173
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0010lost-10-12173
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingLGD Gaming5.0010lost-10-12163
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0010lost-10-12153
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.0610won+1-12143
02.08.26Team Falcons – 1w Team1w Team15.0010lost-10-12144
02.08.26Yellow Submarine – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.0610won+1-12134
01.08.26Stray Team – TpaBoMaH TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.0410won+0-12135
01.08.26GLYPH – Zero TenacityGLYPH1.1010won+1-12135
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamNS Team1.2010won+2-12136
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0010lost-10-12138
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceDaxak Team11.0010lost-10-12128
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingLGD Gaming14.0010lost-10-12118
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceMidas Club14.0010lost-10-12108
31.07.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingXtreme Gaming1.8510won+8-12098
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.1710won+2-12107
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.0010lost-10-12108
31.07.26Enjoy Boys – GLYPHEnjoy Boys14.0010lost-10-12098
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXREKONIX1.0510won+1-12088
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion7.0010lost-10-12089
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.0010lost-10-12079
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.0010lost-10-12069
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.