Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-1190u
ROI
-46.2%
win rate
42%
bets
76
drawdown
119%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+0u
period 24profit withdrawn+0u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22profit withdrawn+0u
period 21profit withdrawn+0u
period 20profit withdrawn+0u
period 19profit withdrawn+0u
period 18profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 76 | 42% | -1190 | -46.2% | 119% | Selected |
| 1% of bankroll | 2542 | 38% | -10178 | -52.1% | 1016.8% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 2542 | 38% | -13311 | -52.4% | 1329.9% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 2542 | 38% | -16024 | -51.9% | 1599.4% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 2542 | 38% | -22671 | -51.3% | 2256.3% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 1524 | 3% | -24223 | -92.7% | 2422.3% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 2542 | 38% | -24532 | -50.7% | 2429.9% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 76, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.09.24 | One Move – Team N1ntendo | Team N1ntendo | 9.00 | 30 | lost | -30 | -190 |
| 25.09.24 | DMS – Night Pulse | DMS | 12.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | -160 |
| 25.09.24 | Team Zero – Azure Ray | Team Zero | 3.60 | 20 | lost | -20 | -120 |
| 25.09.24 | beastcoast – Apex Genesis | beastcoast | 7.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | -100 |
| 25.09.24 | Shopify Rebellion – Cuyes Esports | Shopify Rebellion | 1.06 | 20 | won | +1 | -90 |
| 24.09.24 | nouns – beastcoast | beastcoast | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -92 |
| 24.09.24 | AVULUS – MOUZ | MOUZ | 1.10 | 80 | won | +8 | -82 |
| 24.09.24 | OG – Nigma Galaxy | OG | 13.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | -90 |
| 24.09.24 | AVULUS – Level UP | Level UP | 13.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | -50 |
| 24.09.24 | Team Hryvnia – Palianytsia | Team Hryvnia | 7.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | -30 |
| 24.09.24 | Talon Esports – Bruv123 | Talon Esports | 1.02 | 20 | won | +0 | -20 |
| 24.09.24 | BOOM Esports – Yangon Galacticos | BOOM Esports | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -20 |
| 24.09.24 | ChatoMetraca – Apex Genesis | Apex Genesis | 1.06 | 10 | won | +1 | -10 |
| 23.09.24 | Shopify Rebellion – ChatoMetraca | Shopify Rebellion | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | -11 |
| 23.09.24 | Night Pulse – Team Hryvnia | Team Hryvnia | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -11 |
| 23.09.24 | beastcoast – Cuyes Esports | beastcoast | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -1 |
| 23.09.24 | Level UP – Dragon Esports | Level UP | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -1 |
| 23.09.24 | Execration – Bruv123 | Bruv123 | 1.30 | 10 | won | +3 | -1 |
| 23.09.24 | Team Essence – Kukuys | Kukuys | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | -4 |
| 23.09.24 | Talon Esports – Yangon Galacticos | Talon Esports | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | -4 |
| 23.09.24 | Apex Genesis – Free Stack | Free Stack | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -4 |
| 22.09.24 | Team Hryvnia – Bushido | Bushido | 1.08 | 20 | won | +2 | 6 |
| 22.09.24 | Drago kings – Nightshade | Drago kings | 2.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | 4 |
| 22.09.24 | MANTA Esports – Yangon Galacticos | Yangon Galacticos | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 14 |
| 21.09.24 | ChatoMetraca – Pacific esports | Pacific esports | 4.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 14 |
| 21.09.24 | Fusion – Cuyes Esports | Cuyes Esports | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 24 |
| 20.09.24 | HAVU Gaming – One Move | HAVU Gaming | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 24 |
| 20.09.24 | TT Team – Passion UA | Passion UA | 1.52 | 20 | won | +10 | 34 |
| 20.09.24 | vengaboyz – Uganda knucles | Uganda knucles | 1.95 | 10 | lost | -10 | 23 |
| 20.09.24 | Dragon Esports – Drago kings | Dragon Esports | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 33 |
| 20.09.24 | Night Pulse – TraffKillas | Night Pulse | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 33 |
| 20.09.24 | Evil Rabbit – Azure Ray | Azure Ray | 1.01 | 80 | won | +1 | 33 |
| 19.09.24 | AVULUS – HAVU Gaming | HAVU Gaming | 15.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | 32 |
| 18.09.24 | TT Team – One Move | TT Team | 15.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 72 |
| 16.09.24 | One Move – V1dar Gaming | V1dar Gaming | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 92 |
| 16.09.24 | Passion UA – HAVU Gaming | Passion UA | 1.01 | 10 | won | +0 | 102 |
| 13.09.24 | Tundra Esports – Gaimin Gladiators | Gaimin Gladiators | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 102 |
| 13.09.24 | BETBOOM Team – Team Falcons | BETBOOM Team | 8.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | 102 |
| 10.09.24 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Spirit | Xtreme Gaming | 1.01 | 40 | won | +0 | 112 |
| 09.09.24 | nouns – BETBOOM Team | nouns | 15.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 112 |
| 09.09.24 | 1w Team – Team Zero | Team Zero | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 132 |
| 08.09.24 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.01 | 80 | won | +1 | 142 |
| 07.09.24 | Gaimin Gladiators – G2 Invictus Gaming | G2 Invictus Gaming | 9.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | 141 |
| 07.09.24 | Tundra Esports – Heroic | Heroic | 14.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 181 |
| 07.09.24 | Team Falcons – beastcoast | beastcoast | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 201 |
| 06.09.24 | Cloud9 – 1w Team | Cloud9 | 1.01 | 397 | won | +4 | 211 |
| 06.09.24 | Xtreme Gaming – Talon Esports | Talon Esports | 15.00 | 320 | lost | -320 | 207 |
| 05.09.24 | Team Falcons – Team Zero | Team Zero | 15.00 | 160 | lost | -160 | 527 |
| 05.09.24 | Talon Esports – Cloud9 | Talon Esports | 15.00 | 80 | lost | -80 | 687 |
| 05.09.24 | BETBOOM Team – Team Falcons | BETBOOM Team | 7.50 | 40 | lost | -40 | 767 |
| 04.09.24 | Team Liquid – beastcoast | beastcoast | 15.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 807 |
| 04.09.24 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 827 |
| 04.09.24 | G2 Invictus Gaming – Talon Esports | G2 Invictus Gaming | 2.40 | 40 | won | +56 | 837 |
| 04.09.24 | Team Liquid – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 15.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 781 |
| 04.09.24 | BETBOOM Team – nouns | nouns | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 801 |
| 04.09.24 | Gaimin Gladiators – 1w Team | Gaimin Gladiators | 1.01 | 80 | won | +1 | 811 |
| 29.08.24 | AVULUS – MOUZ | MOUZ | 8.50 | 40 | lost | -40 | 810 |
| 29.08.24 | MOUZ – DMS | DMS | 13.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 850 |
| 27.08.24 | 1w Team – DMS | DMS | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 870 |
| 27.08.24 | Natus Vincere Junior – Night Pulse | Natus Vincere Junior | 1.01 | 20 | won | +0 | 880 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.