Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-2154u
ROI
-23.2%
win rate
37%
bets
129
drawdown
205.3%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
10% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-622u
period 2top-up-792u
period 1top-up-740u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 129 | 37% | -310 | -24.8% | 31.7% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 129 | 37% | -321 | -24.9% | 32.8% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 129 | 37% | -598 | -24.7% | 60.6% | Select |
| Martingale | 8 | 13% | -1000 | -98.1% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 129 | 37% | -1330 | -24.3% | 131.5% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 129 | 37% | -2154 | -23.2% | 205.3% | Selected |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 129, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | Team Resilience – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 2.28 | 42 | lost | -42 | -1154 |
| 14.10.26 | Team Lynx – PuckChamp | PuckChamp | 2.89 | 47 | lost | -47 | -1112 |
| 14.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Shadow Dance | The WarriorsQ | 1.94 | 52 | lost | -52 | -1065 |
| 13.10.26 | Stray Team – Stariy_bog Team | Stray Team | 1.89 | 48 | won | +42 | -1013 |
| 13.10.26 | CyberHero – Shadow Dance | CyberHero | 1.90 | 44 | won | +39 | -1055 |
| 13.10.26 | Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ | The WarriorsQ | 1.95 | 49 | lost | -49 | -1095 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Dawning | 1.95 | 54 | lost | -54 | -1046 |
| 12.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Dawn Bulls | The WarriorsQ | 2.11 | 60 | lost | -60 | -992 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.12 | 67 | lost | -67 | -932 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 1.91 | 61 | won | +55 | -866 |
| 09.10.26 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 2.14 | 68 | lost | -68 | -921 |
| 08.10.26 | LEGION – BlasterbI | LEGION | 1.89 | 62 | won | +55 | -853 |
| 08.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.91 | 69 | lost | -69 | -909 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.13 | 77 | lost | -77 | -839 |
| 07.10.26 | CyberHero – BlasterbI | CyberHero | 1.89 | 85 | lost | -85 | -762 |
| 07.10.26 | Team Synapse – LEGION | LEGION | 1.92 | 78 | won | +72 | -677 |
| 07.10.26 | MOUZ – CyberHero | MOUZ | 2.19 | 87 | lost | -87 | -749 |
| 06.10.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Team Synapse | 2.20 | 78 | won | +93 | -662 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | HULIGANI | 2.08 | 86 | lost | -86 | -755 |
| 05.10.26 | MOUZ – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.03 | 96 | lost | -96 | -669 |
| 05.10.26 | LEGION – BlasterbI | BlasterbI | 1.89 | 107 | lost | -107 | -573 |
| 05.10.26 | Yellow Submarine – CyberHero | CyberHero | 2.23 | 118 | lost | -118 | -466 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Spirit | 2.05 | 107 | won | +113 | -348 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 2.19 | 96 | won | +114 | -460 |
| 03.10.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.92 | 106 | lost | -106 | -574 |
| 02.10.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | OG | 1.90 | 98 | won | +88 | -468 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | 1w Team | 2.03 | 88 | won | +91 | -556 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.92 | 81 | won | +75 | -647 |
| 01.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 2.06 | 90 | lost | -90 | -722 |
| 01.10.26 | Team Yandex – BETBOOM TEAM | BETBOOM TEAM | 2.39 | 100 | lost | -100 | -632 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | PARIVISION | 2.07 | 19 | won | +20 | -532 |
| 30.09.26 | Team Yandex – MOUZ | MOUZ | 2.68 | 21 | lost | -21 | -552 |
| 30.09.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | BETBOOM TEAM | 1.89 | 19 | won | +17 | -531 |
| 29.09.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.90 | 21 | lost | -21 | -548 |
| 29.09.26 | 1w Team – Natus Vincere | 1w Team | 2.75 | 18 | won | +32 | -527 |
| 29.09.26 | Team Spirit – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 2.05 | 20 | lost | -20 | -558 |
| 27.09.26 | YBN Team – Cake Team | YBN Team | 2.13 | 22 | lost | -22 | -538 |
| 27.09.26 | Daxak Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 2.23 | 25 | lost | -25 | -516 |
| 27.09.26 | Stray Team – YBN Team | YBN Team | 2.05 | 23 | won | +24 | -491 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | avice Team | 1.95 | 25 | lost | -25 | -515 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | LGD Gaming | 2.46 | 28 | lost | -28 | -490 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | avice Team | 1.92 | 31 | lost | -31 | -462 |
| 25.09.26 | Xtreme Gaming – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.01 | 28 | won | +28 | -431 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Team Synapse | 2.43 | 25 | won | +35 | -459 |
| 25.09.26 | Solo Team – avice Team | Solo Team | 1.96 | 27 | lost | -27 | -494 |
| 25.09.26 | GamerLegion – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.95 | 30 | lost | -30 | -467 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Team Nemesis | 2.21 | 34 | lost | -34 | -437 |
| 24.09.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.90 | 37 | lost | -37 | -403 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.96 | 42 | lost | -42 | -366 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.97 | 46 | lost | -46 | -324 |
| 24.09.26 | Two Move – Team Lynx | Two Move | 1.99 | 51 | lost | -51 | -278 |
| 24.09.26 | Daxak Team – gpK~ Team | gpK~ Team | 2.54 | 57 | lost | -57 | -227 |
| 24.09.26 | Natus Vincere – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.47 | 50 | won | +73 | -170 |
| 24.09.26 | YBN Team – Rostik Team | YBN Team | 2.10 | 55 | lost | -55 | -243 |
| 23.09.26 | Stray Team – NS Team | NS Team | 2.01 | 61 | lost | -61 | -187 |
| 23.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Conventus Stellarum | Conventus Stellarum | 2.06 | 68 | lost | -68 | -126 |
| 22.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Aurora Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.90 | 76 | lost | -76 | -58 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.35 | 67 | won | +90 | 18 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | avice Team | 2.18 | 74 | lost | -74 | -72 |
| 22.09.26 | MOUZ – Hokori | MOUZ | 2.00 | 67 | won | +68 | 2 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.