Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-1000u
ROI
-98.1%
win rate
13%
bets
8
drawdown
100%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
Martingale
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3profit withdrawn+0u
period 2profit withdrawn+0u
period 1top-up-1000u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 129 | 37% | -310 | -24.8% | 31.7% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 129 | 37% | -321 | -24.9% | 32.8% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 129 | 37% | -598 | -24.7% | 60.6% | Select |
| Martingale | 8 | 13% | -1000 | -98.1% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 129 | 37% | -1330 | -24.3% | 131.5% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 129 | 37% | -2154 | -23.2% | 205.3% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 8, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – summer bear | summer bear | 1.89 | 380 | lost | -380 | 0 |
| 25.08.26 | PuckChamp – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 1.95 | 320 | lost | -320 | 380 |
| 24.08.26 | summer bear – Ducksquad | Ducksquad | 1.89 | 160 | lost | -160 | 700 |
| 24.08.26 | Klim Sani4 – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.89 | 80 | lost | -80 | 860 |
| 24.08.26 | Inner Circle – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 1.89 | 40 | lost | -40 | 940 |
| 23.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | PARIVISION | 2.02 | 20 | lost | -20 | 980 |
| 22.08.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – Team Spirit | BETBOOM TEAM | 1.89 | 10 | lost | -10 | 1000 |
| 22.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Yandex | PARIVISION | 1.95 | 10 | won | +10 | 1010 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.