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Model underdog (Elo)

D2Dota 210% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

profit
-24531u
ROI
-50.8%
win rate
38%
bets
2542
drawdown
2429.8%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model underdog (Elo)

💰
Stake size

10% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-954u
period 24top-up-979u
period 23top-up-995u
period 22top-up-1000u
period 21top-up-996u
period 20top-up-999u
period 19top-up-995u
period 18top-up-1000u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale8944%-1259-36.8%125.9%Select
1% of bankroll254238%-10222-52.4%1021.3%Select
Flat (10 units)254238%-13388-52.7%1337.5%Select
2% of bankroll254238%-16075-52.2%1604.5%Select
5% of bankroll254238%-22691-51.5%2258.3%Select
Quarter Kelly15203%-24227-93.2%2422.7%Select
10% of bankroll254238%-24531-50.8%2429.8%Selected
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2542, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.005lost-5-23531
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.006lost-6-23526
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.006lost-6-23520
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.016won+0-23514
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.036won+0-23514
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.007lost-7-23514
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingBETBOOM Team15.008lost-8-23507
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.309lost-9-23499
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0010lost-10-23490
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.0011lost-11-23481
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0012lost-12-23470
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyLGD Gaming15.0013lost-13-23458
14.08.26Team Yandex – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.1713won+2-23445
13.08.26Team Falcons – PARIVISIONTeam Falcons1.8014lost-14-23447
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyOG5.8016lost-16-23433
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0018lost-18-23417
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.0020lost-20-23399
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersLevel UP1.2219won+4-23380
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityRune Eaters1.0119won+0-23384
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0119won+0-23384
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZRune Eaters1.0119won+0-23384
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereRune Eaters15.0021lost-21-23384
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink1.2521won+5-23363
08.08.26Ilbirs eSports – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink1.0121won+0-23368
07.08.26Team Jenz – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming1.0221won+0-23368
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.0023lost-23-23369
06.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Power RangersIlbirs eSports6.6026lost-26-23346
06.08.26No Hoodwink – Level UPLevel UP2.2523won+29-23320
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w Team1w Team15.0025lost-25-23349
05.08.26PlayTime – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers15.0028lost-28-23323
05.08.261w Team – BETBOOM Team1w Team1.0128won+0-23295
04.08.26Team Liquid – Team FalconsTeam Liquid13.0031lost-31-23295
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersRune Eaters12.0035lost-35-23264
04.08.26PlayTime – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience13.0039lost-39-23229
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0043lost-43-23191
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers1.2642won+11-23148
03.08.26OG – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0046lost-46-23159
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.3045won+14-23112
03.08.26LGD Gaming – 1w Team1w Team1.0145won+0-23126
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0050lost-50-23126
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingLGD Gaming5.0056lost-56-23076
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0062lost-62-23020
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.0661won+4-22959
02.08.26Team Falcons – 1w Team1w Team15.0068lost-68-22962
02.08.26Yellow Submarine – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.0668won+4-22894
01.08.26Stray Team – TpaBoMaH TeamTpaBoMaH Team1.0468won+3-22898
01.08.26GLYPH – Zero TenacityGLYPH1.1067won+7-22901
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamNS Team1.2066won+13-22908
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0073lost-73-22921
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceDaxak Team11.0081lost-81-22848
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingLGD Gaming14.0090lost-90-22767
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceMidas Club14.00100lost-100-22677
31.07.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingXtreme Gaming1.852won+2-22577
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.172won+0-22578
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.002lost-2-22579
31.07.26Enjoy Boys – GLYPHEnjoy Boys14.002lost-2-22577
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXREKONIX1.052won+0-22574
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion7.003lost-3-22574
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.003lost-3-22572
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.003lost-3-22569
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Model underdog (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.