Model underdog (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.
profit
-2067u
ROI
-20.4%
win rate
38%
bets
128
drawdown
200.6%
payouts
3
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
gps_fixed
What we bet on
Model underdog (Elo)
payments
Stake size
10% of bankroll
restart_alt
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
insights
Odds
Odds modelled from the Elo rating with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 3top-up-580u
period 2top-up-747u
period 1top-up-740u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 128 | 38% | -284 | -22.7% | 29.9% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 128 | 38% | -292 | -22.8% | 30.8% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 128 | 38% | -551 | -22.5% | 57.4% | Select |
| Martingale | 8 | 13% | -1000 | -98.1% | 100% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 128 | 38% | -1246 | -21.8% | 126.2% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 128 | 38% | -2067 | -20.4% | 200.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 0 | 0% | +0 | +0% | 0% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 128, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.10.26 | zxcursed Team – ALOHADANCE Team | ALOHADANCE Team | 1.89 | 39 | won | +34 | -1067 |
| 14.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Shadow Dance | The WarriorsQ | 1.94 | 43 | lost | -43 | -1102 |
| 13.10.26 | Stray Team – Stariy_bog Team | Stray Team | 1.89 | 39 | won | +35 | -1059 |
| 13.10.26 | Dawn Bulls – Team Spirit Academy | Team Spirit Academy | 2.43 | 44 | lost | -44 | -1094 |
| 13.10.26 | Power Rangers – The WarriorsQ | The WarriorsQ | 1.95 | 49 | lost | -49 | -1050 |
| 13.10.26 | Cloud Rising – Cloud Dawning | Cloud Dawning | 1.95 | 54 | lost | -54 | -1001 |
| 12.10.26 | The WarriorsQ – Dawn Bulls | The WarriorsQ | 2.11 | 60 | lost | -60 | -948 |
| 11.10.26 | Team Spirit – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.12 | 67 | lost | -67 | -888 |
| 09.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – LGD Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 1.91 | 61 | won | +55 | -821 |
| 09.10.26 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 2.14 | 68 | lost | -68 | -876 |
| 08.10.26 | LEGION – BlasterbI | LEGION | 1.89 | 62 | won | +55 | -808 |
| 08.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.91 | 69 | lost | -69 | -864 |
| 08.10.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.13 | 77 | lost | -77 | -795 |
| 07.10.26 | CyberHero – BlasterbI | CyberHero | 1.89 | 85 | lost | -85 | -718 |
| 07.10.26 | Team Synapse – LEGION | LEGION | 1.92 | 78 | won | +72 | -632 |
| 07.10.26 | MOUZ – CyberHero | MOUZ | 2.19 | 87 | lost | -87 | -704 |
| 06.10.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Team Synapse | 2.20 | 78 | won | +93 | -617 |
| 06.10.26 | HULIGANI – CyberHero | HULIGANI | 2.08 | 86 | lost | -86 | -710 |
| 05.10.26 | MOUZ – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.03 | 96 | lost | -96 | -624 |
| 05.10.26 | LEGION – BlasterbI | BlasterbI | 1.89 | 107 | lost | -107 | -528 |
| 05.10.26 | Yellow Submarine – CyberHero | CyberHero | 2.23 | 118 | lost | -118 | -422 |
| 03.10.26 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Spirit | 2.05 | 107 | won | +113 | -303 |
| 03.10.26 | Daxak Team – Cake Team | Cake Team | 2.19 | 96 | won | +114 | -416 |
| 03.10.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.92 | 106 | lost | -106 | -530 |
| 02.10.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | OG | 1.90 | 98 | won | +88 | -423 |
| 02.10.26 | 1w Team – Team Nemesis | 1w Team | 2.03 | 88 | won | +91 | -512 |
| 02.10.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.92 | 81 | won | +75 | -602 |
| 01.10.26 | Aurora Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 2.06 | 90 | lost | -90 | -677 |
| 01.10.26 | MOUZ – OG | MOUZ | 2.03 | 100 | lost | -100 | -587 |
| 30.09.26 | PARIVISION – LGD Gaming | PARIVISION | 2.07 | 23 | won | +24 | -487 |
| 30.09.26 | Team Yandex – MOUZ | MOUZ | 2.68 | 25 | lost | -25 | -511 |
| 30.09.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – OG | BETBOOM TEAM | 1.89 | 23 | won | +21 | -486 |
| 29.09.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 1.90 | 26 | lost | -26 | -507 |
| 29.09.26 | 1w Team – Natus Vincere | 1w Team | 2.75 | 22 | won | +39 | -481 |
| 29.09.26 | Team Spirit – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 2.05 | 24 | lost | -24 | -519 |
| 27.09.26 | YBN Team – Cake Team | YBN Team | 2.13 | 27 | lost | -27 | -495 |
| 27.09.26 | Daxak Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 2.23 | 30 | lost | -30 | -468 |
| 27.09.26 | Stray Team – YBN Team | YBN Team | 2.05 | 27 | won | +29 | -438 |
| 27.09.26 | avice Team – Cake Team | avice Team | 1.95 | 30 | lost | -30 | -466 |
| 27.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | LGD Gaming | 2.46 | 34 | lost | -34 | -436 |
| 26.09.26 | Rostik Team – avice Team | avice Team | 1.92 | 38 | lost | -38 | -402 |
| 25.09.26 | Xtreme Gaming – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.01 | 34 | won | +34 | -365 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Synapse – Yellow Submarine | Team Synapse | 2.43 | 30 | won | +43 | -399 |
| 25.09.26 | Solo Team – avice Team | Solo Team | 1.96 | 33 | lost | -33 | -442 |
| 25.09.26 | GamerLegion – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.95 | 37 | lost | -37 | -409 |
| 25.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Natus Vincere | Team Nemesis | 2.21 | 41 | lost | -41 | -372 |
| 24.09.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.90 | 45 | lost | -45 | -331 |
| 24.09.26 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | 1w Team | 1.96 | 50 | lost | -50 | -286 |
| 24.09.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Lynx | Team Lynx | 1.97 | 56 | lost | -56 | -235 |
| 24.09.26 | Two Move – Team Lynx | Two Move | 1.99 | 62 | lost | -62 | -179 |
| 24.09.26 | Daxak Team – gpK~ Team | gpK~ Team | 2.54 | 69 | lost | -69 | -117 |
| 24.09.26 | Natus Vincere – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 2.47 | 60 | won | +89 | -47 |
| 24.09.26 | YBN Team – Rostik Team | YBN Team | 2.10 | 67 | lost | -67 | -136 |
| 23.09.26 | Stray Team – NS Team | NS Team | 2.01 | 75 | lost | -75 | -69 |
| 23.09.26 | Team Nemesis – Conventus Stellarum | Conventus Stellarum | 2.06 | 83 | lost | -83 | 6 |
| 22.09.26 | LGD Gaming – Aurora Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.90 | 92 | lost | -92 | 88 |
| 22.09.26 | avice Team – Daxak Team | avice Team | 2.18 | 102 | lost | -102 | 181 |
| 22.09.26 | Team Spirit Academy – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 2.35 | 90 | won | +122 | 283 |
| 22.09.26 | MOUZ – Hokori | MOUZ | 2.00 | 82 | won | +82 | 161 |
| 22.09.26 | Natus Vincere – 1w Team | 1w Team | 2.37 | 91 | lost | -91 | 79 |
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.