Value: edge ≥ 5%
Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.
profit
-3923u
ROI
-89.5%
win rate
4%
bets
479
drawdown
392.3%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Value: edge ≥ 5%
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-59u
period 24top-up-165u
period 23top-up-183u
period 22top-up-203u
period 21top-up-183u
period 20top-up-157u
period 19top-up-140u
period 18top-up-149u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1070 | -100% | 107% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 479 | 4% | -3923 | -89.5% | 392.3% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 479 | 4% | -4278 | -89.3% | 427.8% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 479 | 4% | -7212 | -89.7% | 721.2% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 479 | 4% | -14216 | -90.4% | 1421.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 479 | 4% | -18495 | -93.8% | 1849.5% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 479 | 4% | -20105 | -91.4% | 2010.5% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 479, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2923 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2913 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 10.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2904 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | GLYPH | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2894 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | OG | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2884 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | VooDooSh Team | 4.20 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2874 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | BETBOOM Team | 11.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2864 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Yakult Brothers | 14.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2856 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 11.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2847 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 3.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2839 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2830 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team | Nigma Galaxy | 14.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2821 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH Team | Rostik Team | 10.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2812 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team – TpaBoMaH Team | NS Team | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2803 |
| 27.07.26 | NS Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 3.60 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2794 |
| 20.07.26 | Zero Tenacity – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 3.60 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2785 |
| 17.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM Team | Nigma Galaxy | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2776 |
| 12.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 2.90 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2767 |
| 11.07.26 | PlayTime – Nigma Galaxy | PlayTime | 5.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2757 |
| 10.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Spirit | REKONIX | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2748 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Yandex – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2738 |
| 08.07.26 | GamerLegion – Xtreme Gaming | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2728 |
| 08.07.26 | Poor Rangers – BETBOOM Team | Poor Rangers | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2719 |
| 07.07.26 | Inner Circle – 1w Team | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2709 |
| 28.06.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 5.80 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2699 |
| 28.06.26 | By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE Team | ALOHADANCE Team | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2690 |
| 27.06.26 | Natus Vincere – L1ga Team | Natus Vincere | 2.25 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2682 |
| 25.06.26 | Team Spirit – Nigma Galaxy | Nigma Galaxy | 12.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2674 |
| 24.06.26 | Recrent Team – Stray Team | Recrent Team | 10.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2665 |
| 24.06.26 | Dread Team – DangerLyoha Team | DangerLyoha Team | 3.20 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2657 |
| 21.06.26 | InterActive Philippines – Mentality Monster | InterActive Philippines | 10.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2648 |
| 21.06.26 | Grind Back – Carstensz Esports | Carstensz Esports | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2639 |
| 19.06.26 | summer bear – Power Rangers | summer bear | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2630 |
| 17.06.26 | Power Rangers – Flame Esports | Flame Esports | 12.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2621 |
| 16.06.26 | Flame Esports – Team Spirit Academy | Flame Esports | 4.20 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2612 |
| 13.06.26 | Estar Backs – Gior Dota Team | Gior Dota Team | 12.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2603 |
| 11.06.26 | Phenomenon – NA Last Hope | Phenomenon | 2.90 | 9 | won | +17 | -2594 |
| 11.06.26 | Team Nemesis – Gior Dota Team | Gior Dota Team | 12.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2611 |
| 10.06.26 | L1ga Team – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 11.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2602 |
| 07.06.26 | BETBOOM Team – LGD Gaming | BETBOOM Team | 2.25 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2593 |
| 06.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | TpaBoMaH Club | 3.10 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2584 |
| 05.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2574 |
| 05.06.26 | Execration – REKONIX | Execration | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2565 |
| 04.06.26 | Carstensz Esports – REKONIX | Carstensz Esports | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2555 |
| 02.06.26 | L1ga Team – Poor Rangers | L1ga Team | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2545 |
| 02.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2535 |
| 01.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | TpaBoMaH Club | 6.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2526 |
| 30.05.26 | Team Spirit – OG | OG | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2516 |
| 29.05.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | Team Yandex | 2.70 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2508 |
| 28.05.26 | NS Club – Ramzes Club | NS Club | 5.30 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2499 |
| 27.05.26 | OG – Team Yandex | OG | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2491 |
| 26.05.26 | PARIVISION – Team Yandex | PARIVISION | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2483 |
| 26.05.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -2475 |
| 26.05.26 | GLYPH – LGD Gaming | GLYPH | 2.35 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2466 |
| 24.05.26 | Recrent Team – Solo Team | Recrent Team | 12.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2458 |
| 23.05.26 | Miposhka Team – Stray Team | Miposhka Team | 10.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2449 |
| 22.05.26 | Aurora Gaming – Tundra Esports | Tundra Esports | 11.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2440 |
| 17.05.26 | Team Falcons – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 8.50 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2431 |
| 16.05.26 | Aurora Gaming – Vici Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 2.40 | 9 | won | +12 | -2422 |
| 16.05.26 | Tundra Esports – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -2435 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.