Value: edge ≥ 5%
Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.
profit
-14216u
ROI
-90.4%
win rate
4%
bets
479
drawdown
1421.6%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Value: edge ≥ 5%
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-265u
period 24top-up-603u
period 23top-up-646u
period 22top-up-688u
period 21top-up-649u
period 20top-up-582u
period 19top-up-537u
period 18top-up-565u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1070 | -100% | 107% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 479 | 4% | -3923 | -89.5% | 392.3% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 479 | 4% | -4278 | -89.3% | 427.8% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 479 | 4% | -7212 | -89.7% | 721.2% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 479 | 4% | -14216 | -90.4% | 1421.6% | Selected |
| Quarter Kelly | 479 | 4% | -18495 | -93.8% | 1849.5% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 479 | 4% | -20105 | -91.4% | 2010.5% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 479, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 39 | lost | -39 | -13216 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 41 | lost | -41 | -13178 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 10.00 | 43 | lost | -43 | -13137 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | GLYPH | 14.00 | 45 | lost | -45 | -13094 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | OG | 13.00 | 48 | lost | -48 | -13049 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | VooDooSh Team | 4.20 | 50 | lost | -50 | -13001 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | BETBOOM Team | 11.00 | 21 | lost | -21 | -12951 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Yakult Brothers | 14.00 | 22 | lost | -22 | -12931 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 11.00 | 23 | lost | -23 | -12909 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 3.00 | 24 | lost | -24 | -12885 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 13.00 | 26 | lost | -26 | -12861 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team | Nigma Galaxy | 14.00 | 27 | lost | -27 | -12835 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH Team | Rostik Team | 10.00 | 28 | lost | -28 | -12808 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team – TpaBoMaH Team | NS Team | 13.00 | 30 | lost | -30 | -12780 |
| 27.07.26 | NS Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 3.60 | 32 | lost | -32 | -12750 |
| 20.07.26 | Zero Tenacity – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 3.60 | 33 | lost | -33 | -12718 |
| 17.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM Team | Nigma Galaxy | 15.00 | 35 | lost | -35 | -12685 |
| 12.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 2.90 | 37 | lost | -37 | -12650 |
| 11.07.26 | PlayTime – Nigma Galaxy | PlayTime | 5.80 | 39 | lost | -39 | -12614 |
| 10.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Spirit | REKONIX | 15.00 | 41 | lost | -41 | -12575 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Yandex – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 43 | lost | -43 | -12534 |
| 08.07.26 | GamerLegion – Xtreme Gaming | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 45 | lost | -45 | -12491 |
| 08.07.26 | Poor Rangers – BETBOOM Team | Poor Rangers | 15.00 | 48 | lost | -48 | -12446 |
| 07.07.26 | Inner Circle – 1w Team | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 50 | lost | -50 | -12399 |
| 28.06.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 5.80 | 19 | lost | -19 | -12349 |
| 28.06.26 | By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE Team | ALOHADANCE Team | 13.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | -12330 |
| 27.06.26 | Natus Vincere – L1ga Team | Natus Vincere | 2.25 | 21 | lost | -21 | -12310 |
| 25.06.26 | Team Spirit – Nigma Galaxy | Nigma Galaxy | 12.00 | 22 | lost | -22 | -12290 |
| 24.06.26 | Recrent Team – Stray Team | Recrent Team | 10.00 | 23 | lost | -23 | -12268 |
| 24.06.26 | Dread Team – DangerLyoha Team | DangerLyoha Team | 3.20 | 24 | lost | -24 | -12245 |
| 21.06.26 | InterActive Philippines – Mentality Monster | InterActive Philippines | 10.00 | 25 | lost | -25 | -12221 |
| 21.06.26 | Grind Back – Carstensz Esports | Carstensz Esports | 13.00 | 27 | lost | -27 | -12196 |
| 19.06.26 | summer bear – Power Rangers | summer bear | 13.00 | 28 | lost | -28 | -12169 |
| 17.06.26 | Power Rangers – Flame Esports | Flame Esports | 12.00 | 30 | lost | -30 | -12141 |
| 16.06.26 | Flame Esports – Team Spirit Academy | Flame Esports | 4.20 | 31 | lost | -31 | -12111 |
| 13.06.26 | Estar Backs – Gior Dota Team | Gior Dota Team | 12.00 | 33 | lost | -33 | -12080 |
| 11.06.26 | Phenomenon – NA Last Hope | Phenomenon | 2.90 | 30 | won | +57 | -12047 |
| 11.06.26 | Team Nemesis – Gior Dota Team | Gior Dota Team | 12.00 | 32 | lost | -32 | -12104 |
| 10.06.26 | L1ga Team – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 11.00 | 33 | lost | -33 | -12073 |
| 07.06.26 | BETBOOM Team – LGD Gaming | BETBOOM Team | 2.25 | 35 | lost | -35 | -12040 |
| 06.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | TpaBoMaH Club | 3.10 | 37 | lost | -37 | -12005 |
| 05.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 39 | lost | -39 | -11968 |
| 05.06.26 | Execration – REKONIX | Execration | 13.00 | 41 | lost | -41 | -11929 |
| 04.06.26 | Carstensz Esports – REKONIX | Carstensz Esports | 12.00 | 43 | lost | -43 | -11888 |
| 02.06.26 | L1ga Team – Poor Rangers | L1ga Team | 13.00 | 45 | lost | -45 | -11846 |
| 02.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 13.00 | 48 | lost | -48 | -11800 |
| 01.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | TpaBoMaH Club | 6.60 | 50 | lost | -50 | -11753 |
| 30.05.26 | Team Spirit – OG | OG | 15.00 | 16 | lost | -16 | -11703 |
| 29.05.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | Team Yandex | 2.70 | 17 | lost | -17 | -11687 |
| 28.05.26 | NS Club – Ramzes Club | NS Club | 5.30 | 18 | lost | -18 | -11669 |
| 27.05.26 | OG – Team Yandex | OG | 15.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | -11651 |
| 26.05.26 | PARIVISION – Team Yandex | PARIVISION | 15.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | -11632 |
| 26.05.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 21 | lost | -21 | -11612 |
| 26.05.26 | GLYPH – LGD Gaming | GLYPH | 2.35 | 22 | lost | -22 | -11590 |
| 24.05.26 | Recrent Team – Solo Team | Recrent Team | 12.00 | 24 | lost | -24 | -11568 |
| 23.05.26 | Miposhka Team – Stray Team | Miposhka Team | 10.00 | 25 | lost | -25 | -11544 |
| 22.05.26 | Aurora Gaming – Tundra Esports | Tundra Esports | 11.00 | 26 | lost | -26 | -11520 |
| 17.05.26 | Team Falcons – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 8.50 | 27 | lost | -27 | -11494 |
| 16.05.26 | Aurora Gaming – Vici Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 2.40 | 26 | won | +36 | -11466 |
| 16.05.26 | Tundra Esports – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 27 | lost | -27 | -11502 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.