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Value: edge ≥ 5%

D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

profit
-4278u
ROI
-89.3%
win rate
4%
bets
479
drawdown
427.8%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Value: edge ≥ 5%

💰
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-60u
period 24top-up-180u
period 23top-up-201u
period 22top-up-226u
period 21top-up-200u
period 20top-up-170u
period 19top-up-150u
period 18top-up-160u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale70%-1070-100%107%Select
1% of bankroll4794%-3923-89.5%392.3%Select
Flat (10 units)4794%-4278-89.3%427.8%Select
2% of bankroll4794%-7212-89.7%721.2%Selected
5% of bankroll4794%-14216-90.4%1421.6%Select
Quarter Kelly4794%-18495-93.8%1849.5%Select
10% of bankroll4794%-20105-91.4%2010.5%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 479, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0010lost-10-3278
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.0010lost-10-3268
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0010lost-10-3258
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0010lost-10-3248
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0010lost-10-3238
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2010lost-10-3228
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0010lost-10-3218
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.0010lost-10-3208
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.0010lost-10-3198
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.0010lost-10-3188
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.0010lost-10-3178
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.0010lost-10-3168
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.0010lost-10-3158
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.0010lost-10-3148
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team3.6010lost-10-3138
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming3.6010lost-10-3128
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamNigma Galaxy15.0010lost-10-3118
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.9010lost-10-3108
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyPlayTime5.8010lost-10-3098
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritREKONIX15.0010lost-10-3088
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleInner Circle15.0010lost-10-3078
08.07.26GamerLegion – Xtreme GamingGamerLegion15.0010lost-10-3068
08.07.26Poor Rangers – BETBOOM TeamPoor Rangers15.0010lost-10-3058
07.07.26Inner Circle – 1w TeamInner Circle15.0010lost-10-3048
28.06.26Nigma Galaxy – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine5.8010lost-10-3038
28.06.26By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE TeamALOHADANCE Team13.0010lost-10-3028
27.06.26Natus Vincere – L1ga TeamNatus Vincere2.2510lost-10-3018
25.06.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy12.0010lost-10-3008
24.06.26Recrent Team – Stray TeamRecrent Team10.0010lost-10-2998
24.06.26Dread Team – DangerLyoha TeamDangerLyoha Team3.2010lost-10-2988
21.06.26InterActive Philippines – Mentality MonsterInterActive Philippines10.0010lost-10-2978
21.06.26Grind Back – Carstensz EsportsCarstensz Esports13.0010lost-10-2968
19.06.26summer bear – Power Rangerssummer bear13.0010lost-10-2958
17.06.26Power Rangers – Flame EsportsFlame Esports12.0010lost-10-2948
16.06.26Flame Esports – Team Spirit AcademyFlame Esports4.2010lost-10-2938
13.06.26Estar Backs – Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.0010lost-10-2928
11.06.26Phenomenon – NA Last HopePhenomenon2.9010won+19-2918
11.06.26Team Nemesis – Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.0010lost-10-2937
10.06.26L1ga Team – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity11.0010lost-10-2927
07.06.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingBETBOOM Team2.2510lost-10-2917
06.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubTpaBoMaH Club3.1010lost-10-2907
05.06.26LGD Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid15.0010lost-10-2897
05.06.26Execration – REKONIXExecration13.0010lost-10-2887
04.06.26Carstensz Esports – REKONIXCarstensz Esports12.0010lost-10-2877
02.06.26L1ga Team – Poor RangersL1ga Team13.0010lost-10-2867
02.06.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere13.0010lost-10-2857
01.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubTpaBoMaH Club6.6010lost-10-2847
30.05.26Team Spirit – OGOG15.0010lost-10-2837
29.05.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex2.7010lost-10-2827
28.05.26NS Club – Ramzes ClubNS Club5.3010lost-10-2817
27.05.26OG – Team YandexOG15.0010lost-10-2807
26.05.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION15.0010lost-10-2797
26.05.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0010lost-10-2787
26.05.26GLYPH – LGD GamingGLYPH2.3510lost-10-2777
24.05.26Recrent Team – Solo TeamRecrent Team12.0010lost-10-2767
23.05.26Miposhka Team – Stray TeamMiposhka Team10.0010lost-10-2757
22.05.26Aurora Gaming – Tundra EsportsTundra Esports11.0010lost-10-2747
17.05.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion8.5010lost-10-2737
16.05.26Aurora Gaming – Vici GamingAurora Gaming2.4010won+14-2727
16.05.26Tundra Esports – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.0010lost-10-2741
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Value: edge ≥ 5%" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.