Value: edge ≥ 5%
Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.
profit
-8648u
ROI
-88.9%
win rate
4%
bets
1212
drawdown
864.8%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Value: edge ≥ 5%
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-238u
period 24top-up-304u
period 23top-up-359u
period 22top-up-398u
period 21top-up-419u
period 20top-up-304u
period 19top-up-381u
period 18top-up-434u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1000 | -100% | 100% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1212 | 4% | -8648 | -88.9% | 864.8% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1212 | 4% | -10715 | -88.4% | 1071.5% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1212 | 4% | -14201 | -89.5% | 1420.1% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1212 | 4% | -21626 | -91% | 2162.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 1212 | 4% | -23880 | -94.6% | 2388% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1212 | 4% | -24265 | -92.6% | 2426.5% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1212, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7648 |
| 20.08.26 | PARIVISION – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7640 |
| 16.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Yandex | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7632 |
| 15.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 11.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7624 |
| 15.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 14.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7617 |
| 15.08.26 | 1w Team – Team Liquid | 1w Team | 5.30 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7609 |
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7600 |
| 15.08.26 | Team Falcons – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7592 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7584 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7576 |
| 12.08.26 | Level UP – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 4.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7567 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – No Hoodwink | Rune Eaters Arise | 12.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7559 |
| 08.08.26 | Ilbirs eSports – No Hoodwink | Ilbirs eSports | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7550 |
| 07.08.26 | Zero Tenacity – No Hoodwink | No Hoodwink | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7541 |
| 06.08.26 | No Hoodwink – Level UP | No Hoodwink | 1.60 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7533 |
| 05.08.26 | Team Liquid – 1w Team | 1w Team | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7524 |
| 04.08.26 | Yakult Brothers – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 12.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7515 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 10.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7506 |
| 03.08.26 | Vici Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Vici Gaming | 3.60 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7497 |
| 03.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 3.30 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7487 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | GLYPH | 14.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7478 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Liquid – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 5.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7469 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | OG | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7459 |
| 02.08.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7450 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | VooDooSh Team | 4.20 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7440 |
| 01.08.26 | Daxak Team – Team avice | Daxak Team | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7430 |
| 01.08.26 | Midas Club – Team Resilience | Midas Club | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7420 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | BETBOOM Team | 11.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -7410 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Yakult Brothers | 14.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -7403 |
| 31.07.26 | L1ga Team – REKONIX | L1ga Team | 8.50 | 7 | lost | -7 | -7396 |
| 31.07.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 7.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -7389 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 11.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -7382 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 3.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -7374 |
| 30.07.26 | Team Falcons – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -7367 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7359 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team | Nigma Galaxy | 14.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7352 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH Team | Rostik Team | 10.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7344 |
| 29.07.26 | NS Team – Stray Team | NS Team | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7337 |
| 28.07.26 | YBN Team – Team avice | YBN Team | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7329 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team – TpaBoMaH Team | NS Team | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7321 |
| 27.07.26 | NS Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 3.60 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7313 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Level UP | Nemiga Gaming | 7.50 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7305 |
| 21.07.26 | Team Lynx – Team Spirit Academy | Team Lynx | 1.52 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7297 |
| 20.07.26 | Level UP – Ilbirs eSports | Ilbirs eSports | 10.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7289 |
| 20.07.26 | Zero Tenacity – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 3.60 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7280 |
| 20.07.26 | Team Lynx – PuckChamp | Team Lynx | 10.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7272 |
| 19.07.26 | Vici Gaming – Team Yandex | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7264 |
| 18.07.26 | Team Yandex – PARIVISION | Team Yandex | 6.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7255 |
| 18.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7246 |
| 17.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM Team | Nigma Galaxy | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7238 |
| 14.07.26 | Team Liquid – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7229 |
| 12.07.26 | 1w Team – Team Yandex | 1w Team | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7220 |
| 12.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 2.90 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7211 |
| 11.07.26 | PlayTime – Nigma Galaxy | PlayTime | 5.80 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7202 |
| 10.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Spirit | REKONIX | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7193 |
| 10.07.26 | Team Nemesis – Vici Gaming | Team Nemesis | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7184 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Yandex – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7174 |
| 08.07.26 | Vici Gaming – PARIVISION | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7165 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Spirit – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7156 |
| 08.07.26 | GamerLegion – Xtreme Gaming | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7146 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.