Value: edge ≥ 5%
Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.
profit
-1000u
ROI
-100%
win rate
0%
bets
7
drawdown
100%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Value: edge ≥ 5%
💰
Stake size
Martingale
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+0u
period 24profit withdrawn+0u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22profit withdrawn+0u
period 21profit withdrawn+0u
period 20profit withdrawn+0u
period 19profit withdrawn+0u
period 18profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1000 | -100% | 100% | Selected |
| 1% of bankroll | 1212 | 4% | -8648 | -88.9% | 864.8% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1212 | 4% | -10715 | -88.4% | 1071.5% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1212 | 4% | -14201 | -89.5% | 1420.1% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1212 | 4% | -21626 | -91% | 2162.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 1212 | 4% | -23880 | -94.6% | 2388% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1212 | 4% | -24265 | -92.6% | 2426.5% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 7, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.08.24 | 1w Team – DMS | DMS | 11.00 | 370 | lost | -370 | 0 |
| 26.08.24 | Night Pulse – AVULUS | Night Pulse | 12.00 | 320 | lost | -320 | 370 |
| 25.08.24 | Team Spirit – Team Falcons | Team Spirit | 4.80 | 160 | lost | -160 | 690 |
| 24.08.24 | AVULUS – Dragon Esports | Dragon Esports | 10.00 | 80 | lost | -80 | 850 |
| 23.08.24 | AVULUS – Natus Vincere Junior | Natus Vincere Junior | 10.00 | 40 | lost | -40 | 930 |
| 22.08.24 | nouns – Tundra Esports | nouns | 11.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | 970 |
| 22.08.24 | Gaimin Gladiators – BETBOOM Team | Gaimin Gladiators | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 990 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.