Value: edge ≥ 5%
Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.
profit
-24820u
ROI
-91.4%
win rate
4%
bets
2449
drawdown
2482%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Value: edge ≥ 5%
💰
Stake size
Quarter Kelly
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-987u
period 24top-up-976u
period 23top-up-998u
period 22top-up-1000u
period 21top-up-1000u
period 20top-up-999u
period 19top-up-1000u
period 18top-up-1000u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1000 | -100% | 100% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 517 | 5% | -4366 | -84.5% | 436.6% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 2449 | 4% | -14188 | -88.8% | 1418.8% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 2449 | 4% | -20015 | -89.1% | 2001.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 2449 | 4% | -24214 | -89.8% | 2421.4% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 2449 | 4% | -24820 | -91.4% | 2482% | Selected |
| 10% of bankroll | 2449 | 4% | -24864 | -90% | 2486.4% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2449, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 1 | lost | -1 | -23820 |
| 20.08.26 | PARIVISION – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 1 | lost | -1 | -23818 |
| 16.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Yandex | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 1 | lost | -1 | -23817 |
| 15.08.26 | OG – GamerLegion | OG | 15.00 | 2 | lost | -2 | -23816 |
| 15.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 11.00 | 2 | lost | -2 | -23815 |
| 15.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 14.00 | 1 | lost | -1 | -23813 |
| 15.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – Aurora Gaming | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 2 | lost | -2 | -23811 |
| 15.08.26 | 1w Team – Team Liquid | 1w Team | 5.30 | 1 | lost | -1 | -23809 |
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -23808 |
| 15.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 15.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -23805 |
| 15.08.26 | Team Falcons – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 1 | lost | -1 | -23802 |
| 14.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Nigma Galaxy | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 4 | lost | -4 | -23801 |
| 14.08.26 | Team Yandex – Team Liquid | Team Yandex | 4.80 | 4 | lost | -4 | -23797 |
| 13.08.26 | Team Falcons – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 1.98 | 3 | won | +3 | -23793 |
| 13.08.26 | OG – Nigma Galaxy | OG | 5.80 | 3 | lost | -3 | -23796 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 1 | lost | -1 | -23793 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 1 | lost | -1 | -23791 |
| 12.08.26 | Level UP – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 4.00 | 5 | lost | -5 | -23791 |
| 11.08.26 | Rune Eaters – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 15.00 | 5 | lost | -5 | -23786 |
| 11.08.26 | Yellow Submarine – Zero Tenacity | Yellow Submarine | 15.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -23781 |
| 11.08.26 | Rune Eaters – MOUZ | MOUZ | 15.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -23776 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters – Natus Vincere | Rune Eaters | 15.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -23769 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – No Hoodwink | Rune Eaters Arise | 12.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -23766 |
| 08.08.26 | Ilbirs eSports – No Hoodwink | Ilbirs eSports | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -23759 |
| 07.08.26 | Team Jenz – Nemiga Gaming | Team Jenz | 14.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -23751 |
| 07.08.26 | Zero Tenacity – No Hoodwink | No Hoodwink | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -23741 |
| 06.08.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Power Rangers | Ilbirs eSports | 6.60 | 5 | lost | -5 | -23731 |
| 06.08.26 | No Hoodwink – Level UP | No Hoodwink | 1.60 | 4 | lost | -4 | -23726 |
| 05.08.26 | Team Liquid – 1w Team | 1w Team | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -23722 |
| 05.08.26 | PlayTime – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 15.00 | 11 | lost | -11 | -23712 |
| 05.08.26 | 1w Team – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 13.00 | 15 | lost | -15 | -23702 |
| 04.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Falcons | Team Liquid | 13.00 | 16 | lost | -16 | -23687 |
| 04.08.26 | Yakult Brothers – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 12.00 | 18 | lost | -18 | -23672 |
| 04.08.26 | PlayTime – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 13.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | -23654 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 10.00 | 15 | lost | -15 | -23635 |
| 03.08.26 | Vici Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Vici Gaming | 3.60 | 24 | lost | -24 | -23620 |
| 03.08.26 | OG – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 26 | lost | -26 | -23597 |
| 03.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 3.30 | 29 | lost | -29 | -23570 |
| 03.08.26 | LGD Gaming – 1w Team | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 32 | lost | -32 | -23541 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | GLYPH | 14.00 | 27 | lost | -27 | -23509 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Liquid – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 5.00 | 23 | lost | -23 | -23482 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | OG | 13.00 | 39 | lost | -39 | -23459 |
| 02.08.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 13.00 | 46 | lost | -46 | -23420 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Falcons – 1w Team | 1w Team | 15.00 | 27 | lost | -27 | -23374 |
| 02.08.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Resilience | Yellow Submarine | 14.00 | 54 | lost | -54 | -23347 |
| 01.08.26 | Stray Team – TpaBoMaH Team | Stray Team | 13.00 | 60 | lost | -60 | -23293 |
| 01.08.26 | GLYPH – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 6.00 | 67 | lost | -67 | -23233 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | VooDooSh Team | 4.20 | 68 | lost | -68 | -23167 |
| 01.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 26 | lost | -26 | -23098 |
| 01.08.26 | Daxak Team – Team avice | Daxak Team | 11.00 | 84 | lost | -84 | -23072 |
| 01.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 14.00 | 59 | lost | -59 | -22988 |
| 01.08.26 | Midas Club – Team Resilience | Midas Club | 14.00 | 96 | lost | -96 | -22929 |
| 31.07.26 | Xtreme Gaming – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.92 | 1 | lost | -1 | -22833 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | BETBOOM Team | 11.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22831 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Yakult Brothers | 14.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22829 |
| 31.07.26 | Enjoy Boys – GLYPH | Enjoy Boys | 14.00 | 4 | lost | -4 | -22825 |
| 31.07.26 | L1ga Team – REKONIX | L1ga Team | 8.50 | 4 | lost | -4 | -22822 |
| 31.07.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 7.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22818 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 11.00 | 2 | lost | -2 | -22815 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 3.00 | 2 | lost | -2 | -22814 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.