Value: edge ≥ 5%
Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.
profit
-4366u
ROI
-84.5%
win rate
5%
bets
517
drawdown
436.6%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Value: edge ≥ 5%
💰
Stake size
Flat (10 units)
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+0u
period 24profit withdrawn+0u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22profit withdrawn+0u
period 21profit withdrawn+0u
period 20profit withdrawn+0u
period 19profit withdrawn+0u
period 18profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1000 | -100% | 100% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 517 | 5% | -4366 | -84.5% | 436.6% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 2449 | 4% | -14188 | -88.8% | 1418.8% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 2449 | 4% | -20015 | -89.1% | 2001.5% | Selected |
| 5% of bankroll | 2449 | 4% | -24214 | -89.8% | 2421.4% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 2449 | 4% | -24820 | -91.4% | 2482% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 2449 | 4% | -24864 | -90% | 2486.4% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 517, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.01.25 | Team Liquid – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 15.00 | 5 | lost | -5 | -3366 |
| 27.01.25 | Zero Tenacity – Jigglin | Zero Tenacity | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3361 |
| 26.01.25 | Aurora Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3351 |
| 26.01.25 | Yakult Brothers – AVULUS | Yakult Brothers | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3341 |
| 26.01.25 | Wildcard Gaming – Tundra Esports | Wildcard Gaming | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3331 |
| 26.01.25 | Team Liquid – PARIVISION | Team Liquid | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3321 |
| 25.01.25 | Shopify Rebellion – AVULUS | Shopify Rebellion | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3311 |
| 25.01.25 | Xtreme Gaming – Chimera Esports | Chimera Esports | 6.30 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3301 |
| 25.01.25 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 8.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3291 |
| 25.01.25 | Night Pulse – Jigglin | Night Pulse | 1.85 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3281 |
| 24.01.25 | Aurora Gaming – Heroic | Aurora Gaming | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3271 |
| 24.01.25 | Tundra Esports – Shopify Rebellion | Shopify Rebellion | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3261 |
| 24.01.25 | Team Spirit – Yakult Brothers | Team Spirit | 2.15 | 10 | won | +12 | -3251 |
| 24.01.25 | Zero Tenacity – 4Pirates | 4Pirates | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3262 |
| 24.01.25 | Zero Tenacity – ASAKURA | ASAKURA | 2.70 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3252 |
| 24.01.25 | Team Liquid – Talon Esports | Talon Esports | 4.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3242 |
| 24.01.25 | PARIVISION – Aurora Gaming | PARIVISION | 2.05 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3232 |
| 24.01.25 | LFG – MOUZ | MOUZ | 2.10 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3222 |
| 24.01.25 | Tundra Esports – Yakult Brothers | Tundra Esports | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3212 |
| 24.01.25 | Xtreme Gaming – Wildcard Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3202 |
| 23.01.25 | MOUZ – LFG | LFG | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3192 |
| 23.01.25 | LFG – Quantum Team | LFG | 5.30 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3182 |
| 23.01.25 | Lesnaya Bratva – MOUZ | Lesnaya Bratva | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3172 |
| 23.01.25 | Into The Breach – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3162 |
| 23.01.25 | Passion UA – One Move | One Move | 5.30 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3152 |
| 23.01.25 | MOUZ – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 2.80 | 10 | won | +18 | -3142 |
| 22.01.25 | Into The Breach – Lesnaya Bratva | Lesnaya Bratva | 3.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3160 |
| 22.01.25 | One Move – Night Pulse | One Move | 7.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3150 |
| 21.01.25 | MOUZ – Nemiga Gaming | MOUZ | 3.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3140 |
| 21.01.25 | Shopify Rebellion – Wildcard Gaming | Wildcard Gaming | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3130 |
| 20.01.25 | Zero Tenacity – xanbl | xanbl | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3120 |
| 20.01.25 | Into The Breach – TT Team | TT Team | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3110 |
| 20.01.25 | Nigma Galaxy – Winter Bear | Winter Bear | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3100 |
| 20.01.25 | Team Tidebound – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3090 |
| 19.01.25 | Nigma Galaxy – Chimera Esports | Nigma Galaxy | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3080 |
| 19.01.25 | Night Pulse – Team Secret | Team Secret | 3.10 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3070 |
| 19.01.25 | Gaimin Gladiators – AVULUS | Gaimin Gladiators | 7.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3060 |
| 19.01.25 | Team Tidebound – Xtreme Gaming | Team Tidebound | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3050 |
| 19.01.25 | Passion UA – Team Secret | Passion UA | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3040 |
| 19.01.25 | Yakult Brothers – the goal of all life is death | the goal of all life is death | 7.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3030 |
| 19.01.25 | Titan – Spiky Gaming | Spiky Gaming | 6.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3020 |
| 19.01.25 | Team Cyberding – Dead Denasty | Dead Denasty | 3.10 | 10 | won | +21 | -3010 |
| 19.01.25 | Heroic – M80 | M80 | 10.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3032 |
| 18.01.25 | Natus Vincere Junior – OG | OG | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3022 |
| 18.01.25 | One Move – 9Pandas | One Move | 6.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3012 |
| 18.01.25 | Talon Esports – Team Kukuys | Team Kukuys | 7.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | -3002 |
| 18.01.25 | Xtreme Gaming – the goal of all life is death | the goal of all life is death | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2992 |
| 17.01.25 | Team Hryvnia – MOUZ | Team Hryvnia | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2982 |
| 17.01.25 | Team Spirit – One Move | One Move | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2972 |
| 17.01.25 | L1ga Team – 9Pandas | L1ga Team | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2962 |
| 17.01.25 | Virtus.pro – L1ga Team | Virtus.pro | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2952 |
| 17.01.25 | Team Kukuys – The MongolZ | Team Kukuys | 2.30 | 10 | won | +13 | -2942 |
| 17.01.25 | BOOM Esports – Talon Esports | BOOM Esports | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2954 |
| 17.01.25 | 9Pandas – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2944 |
| 17.01.25 | Aurora Gaming – Team Kukuys | Aurora Gaming | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2934 |
| 17.01.25 | The MongolZ – InterActive Philippines | InterActive Philippines | 4.20 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2924 |
| 17.01.25 | Execration – Team Kukuys | Execration | 10.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2914 |
| 16.01.25 | Team Spirit – 1w Team | 1w Team | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2904 |
| 16.01.25 | Zero Tenacity – ASAKURA | ASAKURA | 2.80 | 10 | won | +18 | -2894 |
| 16.01.25 | Zero Tenacity – Winter Bear | Winter Bear | 6.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2912 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.