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Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)

D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

profit
-4267u
ROI
-89.8%
win rate
3%
bets
475
drawdown
426.7%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)

💰
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-60u
period 24top-up-180u
period 23top-up-201u
period 22top-up-226u
period 21top-up-200u
period 20top-up-170u
period 19top-up-150u
period 18top-up-164u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale70%-1070-100%107%Select
1% of bankroll4753%-3914-90%391.4%Select
Flat (10 units)4753%-4267-89.8%426.7%Selected
2% of bankroll4753%-7196-90.3%719.6%Select
5% of bankroll4753%-14192-90.9%1419.2%Select
Quarter Kelly4753%-18471-94.4%1847.1%Select
10% of bankroll4753%-20079-92%2007.9%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 475, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0010lost-10-3267
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.0010lost-10-3257
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0010lost-10-3247
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0010lost-10-3237
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0010lost-10-3227
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2010lost-10-3217
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0010lost-10-3207
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.0010lost-10-3197
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.0010lost-10-3187
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.0010lost-10-3177
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.0010lost-10-3167
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.0010lost-10-3157
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.0010lost-10-3147
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.0010lost-10-3137
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team3.6010lost-10-3127
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming3.6010lost-10-3117
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamNigma Galaxy15.0010lost-10-3107
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.9010lost-10-3097
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyPlayTime5.8010lost-10-3087
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritREKONIX15.0010lost-10-3077
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleInner Circle15.0010lost-10-3067
08.07.26GamerLegion – Xtreme GamingGamerLegion15.0010lost-10-3057
08.07.26Poor Rangers – BETBOOM TeamPoor Rangers15.0010lost-10-3047
07.07.26Inner Circle – 1w TeamInner Circle15.0010lost-10-3037
28.06.26Nigma Galaxy – Yellow SubmarineYellow Submarine5.8010lost-10-3027
28.06.26By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE TeamALOHADANCE Team13.0010lost-10-3017
27.06.26Natus Vincere – L1ga TeamNatus Vincere2.2510lost-10-3007
25.06.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy12.0010lost-10-2997
24.06.26Recrent Team – Stray TeamRecrent Team10.0010lost-10-2987
24.06.26Dread Team – DangerLyoha TeamDangerLyoha Team3.2010lost-10-2977
21.06.26InterActive Philippines – Mentality MonsterInterActive Philippines10.0010lost-10-2967
21.06.26Grind Back – Carstensz EsportsCarstensz Esports13.0010lost-10-2957
19.06.26summer bear – Power Rangerssummer bear13.0010lost-10-2947
17.06.26Power Rangers – Flame EsportsFlame Esports12.0010lost-10-2937
16.06.26Flame Esports – Team Spirit AcademyFlame Esports4.2010lost-10-2927
13.06.26Estar Backs – Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.0010lost-10-2917
11.06.26Phenomenon – NA Last HopePhenomenon2.9010won+19-2907
11.06.26Team Nemesis – Gior Dota TeamGior Dota Team12.0010lost-10-2926
10.06.26L1ga Team – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity11.0010lost-10-2916
07.06.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingBETBOOM Team2.2510lost-10-2906
06.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubTpaBoMaH Club3.1010lost-10-2896
05.06.26LGD Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid15.0010lost-10-2886
05.06.26Execration – REKONIXExecration13.0010lost-10-2876
04.06.26Carstensz Esports – REKONIXCarstensz Esports12.0010lost-10-2866
02.06.26L1ga Team – Poor RangersL1ga Team13.0010lost-10-2856
02.06.26LGD Gaming – Natus VincereNatus Vincere13.0010lost-10-2846
01.06.26Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH ClubTpaBoMaH Club6.6010lost-10-2836
30.05.26Team Spirit – OGOG15.0010lost-10-2826
29.05.26Team Yandex – LGD GamingTeam Yandex2.7010lost-10-2816
28.05.26NS Club – Ramzes ClubNS Club5.3010lost-10-2806
27.05.26OG – Team YandexOG15.0010lost-10-2796
26.05.26PARIVISION – Team YandexPARIVISION15.0010lost-10-2786
26.05.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0010lost-10-2776
26.05.26GLYPH – LGD GamingGLYPH2.3510lost-10-2766
24.05.26Recrent Team – Solo TeamRecrent Team12.0010lost-10-2756
23.05.26Miposhka Team – Stray TeamMiposhka Team10.0010lost-10-2746
22.05.26Aurora Gaming – Tundra EsportsTundra Esports11.0010lost-10-2736
17.05.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion8.5010lost-10-2726
16.05.26Aurora Gaming – Vici GamingAurora Gaming2.4010won+14-2716
16.05.26Tundra Esports – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.0010lost-10-2730
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.