Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.
profit
-14192u
ROI
-90.9%
win rate
3%
bets
475
drawdown
1419.2%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-265u
period 24top-up-603u
period 23top-up-646u
period 22top-up-688u
period 21top-up-649u
period 20top-up-582u
period 19top-up-537u
period 18top-up-574u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1070 | -100% | 107% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 475 | 3% | -3914 | -90% | 391.4% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 475 | 3% | -4267 | -89.8% | 426.7% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 475 | 3% | -7196 | -90.3% | 719.6% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 475 | 3% | -14192 | -90.9% | 1419.2% | Selected |
| Quarter Kelly | 475 | 3% | -18471 | -94.4% | 1847.1% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 475 | 3% | -20079 | -92% | 2007.9% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 475, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 39 | lost | -39 | -13192 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 41 | lost | -41 | -13153 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 10.00 | 43 | lost | -43 | -13112 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | GLYPH | 14.00 | 45 | lost | -45 | -13069 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | OG | 13.00 | 48 | lost | -48 | -13024 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | VooDooSh Team | 4.20 | 50 | lost | -50 | -12977 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – Team Liquid | BETBOOM TEAM | 11.00 | 21 | lost | -21 | -12927 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Yakult Brothers | 14.00 | 22 | lost | -22 | -12906 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 11.00 | 23 | lost | -23 | -12884 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 3.00 | 24 | lost | -24 | -12861 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 13.00 | 26 | lost | -26 | -12836 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team | Nigma Galaxy | 14.00 | 27 | lost | -27 | -12811 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH Team | Rostik Team | 10.00 | 28 | lost | -28 | -12784 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team – TpaBoMaH Team | NS Team | 13.00 | 30 | lost | -30 | -12755 |
| 27.07.26 | NS Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 3.60 | 32 | lost | -32 | -12725 |
| 20.07.26 | Zero Tenacity – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 3.60 | 33 | lost | -33 | -12694 |
| 17.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TEAM | Nigma Galaxy | 15.00 | 35 | lost | -35 | -12660 |
| 12.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 2.90 | 37 | lost | -37 | -12626 |
| 11.07.26 | PlayTime – Nigma Galaxy | PlayTime | 5.80 | 39 | lost | -39 | -12589 |
| 10.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Spirit | REKONIX | 15.00 | 41 | lost | -41 | -12550 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Yandex – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 43 | lost | -43 | -12509 |
| 08.07.26 | GamerLegion – Xtreme Gaming | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 45 | lost | -45 | -12467 |
| 08.07.26 | Poor Rangers – BETBOOM TEAM | Poor Rangers | 15.00 | 48 | lost | -48 | -12421 |
| 07.07.26 | Inner Circle – 1w Team | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 50 | lost | -50 | -12374 |
| 28.06.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Yellow Submarine | Yellow Submarine | 5.80 | 19 | lost | -19 | -12324 |
| 28.06.26 | By_Owl Team – ALOHADANCE Team | ALOHADANCE Team | 13.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | -12305 |
| 27.06.26 | Natus Vincere – L1ga Team | Natus Vincere | 2.25 | 21 | lost | -21 | -12286 |
| 25.06.26 | Team Spirit – Nigma Galaxy | Nigma Galaxy | 12.00 | 22 | lost | -22 | -12265 |
| 24.06.26 | Recrent Team – Stray Team | Recrent Team | 10.00 | 23 | lost | -23 | -12243 |
| 24.06.26 | Dread Team – DangerLyoha Team | DangerLyoha Team | 3.20 | 24 | lost | -24 | -12220 |
| 21.06.26 | InterActive Philippines – Mentality Monster | InterActive Philippines | 10.00 | 25 | lost | -25 | -12196 |
| 21.06.26 | Grind Back – Carstensz Esports | Carstensz Esports | 13.00 | 27 | lost | -27 | -12171 |
| 19.06.26 | summer bear – Power Rangers | summer bear | 13.00 | 28 | lost | -28 | -12144 |
| 17.06.26 | Power Rangers – Flame Esports | Flame Esports | 12.00 | 30 | lost | -30 | -12116 |
| 16.06.26 | Flame Esports – Team Spirit Academy | Flame Esports | 4.20 | 31 | lost | -31 | -12086 |
| 13.06.26 | Estar Backs – Gior Dota Team | Gior Dota Team | 12.00 | 33 | lost | -33 | -12055 |
| 11.06.26 | Phenomenon – NA Last Hope | Phenomenon | 2.90 | 30 | won | +57 | -12023 |
| 11.06.26 | Team Nemesis – Gior Dota Team | Gior Dota Team | 12.00 | 32 | lost | -32 | -12079 |
| 10.06.26 | L1ga Team – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 11.00 | 33 | lost | -33 | -12048 |
| 07.06.26 | BETBOOM TEAM – LGD Gaming | BETBOOM TEAM | 2.25 | 35 | lost | -35 | -12015 |
| 06.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | TpaBoMaH Club | 3.10 | 37 | lost | -37 | -11980 |
| 05.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 39 | lost | -39 | -11943 |
| 05.06.26 | Execration – REKONIX | Execration | 13.00 | 41 | lost | -41 | -11904 |
| 04.06.26 | Carstensz Esports – REKONIX | Carstensz Esports | 12.00 | 43 | lost | -43 | -11864 |
| 02.06.26 | L1ga Team – Poor Rangers | L1ga Team | 13.00 | 45 | lost | -45 | -11821 |
| 02.06.26 | LGD Gaming – Natus Vincere | Natus Vincere | 13.00 | 48 | lost | -48 | -11776 |
| 01.06.26 | Ramzes Club – TpaBoMaH Club | TpaBoMaH Club | 6.60 | 50 | lost | -50 | -11728 |
| 30.05.26 | Team Spirit – OG | OG | 15.00 | 16 | lost | -16 | -11678 |
| 29.05.26 | Team Yandex – LGD Gaming | Team Yandex | 2.70 | 17 | lost | -17 | -11662 |
| 28.05.26 | NS Club – Ramzes Club | NS Club | 5.30 | 18 | lost | -18 | -11644 |
| 27.05.26 | OG – Team Yandex | OG | 15.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | -11626 |
| 26.05.26 | PARIVISION – Team Yandex | PARIVISION | 15.00 | 20 | lost | -20 | -11607 |
| 26.05.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 21 | lost | -21 | -11587 |
| 26.05.26 | GLYPH – LGD Gaming | GLYPH | 2.35 | 22 | lost | -22 | -11566 |
| 24.05.26 | Recrent Team – Solo Team | Recrent Team | 12.00 | 24 | lost | -24 | -11543 |
| 23.05.26 | Miposhka Team – Stray Team | Miposhka Team | 10.00 | 25 | lost | -25 | -11520 |
| 22.05.26 | Aurora Gaming – Tundra Esports | Tundra Esports | 11.00 | 26 | lost | -26 | -11495 |
| 17.05.26 | Team Falcons – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 8.50 | 27 | lost | -27 | -11469 |
| 16.05.26 | Aurora Gaming – Vici Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 2.40 | 26 | won | +36 | -11441 |
| 16.05.26 | Tundra Esports – BETBOOM TEAM | BETBOOM TEAM | 15.00 | 27 | lost | -27 | -11477 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.