Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.
profit
-8591u
ROI
-89.5%
win rate
3%
bets
1194
drawdown
859.1%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-230u
period 24top-up-297u
period 23top-up-359u
period 22top-up-392u
period 21top-up-419u
period 20top-up-304u
period 19top-up-375u
period 18top-up-430u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1000 | -100% | 100% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1194 | 3% | -8591 | -89.5% | 859.1% | Selected |
| Flat (10 units) | 1194 | 3% | -10628 | -89% | 1062.9% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1194 | 3% | -14126 | -90.1% | 1412.6% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1194 | 3% | -21569 | -91.7% | 2156.9% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 1194 | 3% | -23859 | -95.3% | 2385.9% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1194 | 3% | -24247 | -93.4% | 2424.7% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1194, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7591 |
| 20.08.26 | PARIVISION – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7583 |
| 16.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Yandex | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7575 |
| 15.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 11.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7567 |
| 15.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 14.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7559 |
| 15.08.26 | 1w Team – Team Liquid | 1w Team | 5.30 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7551 |
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7543 |
| 15.08.26 | Team Falcons – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7535 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7526 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7518 |
| 12.08.26 | Level UP – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 4.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7509 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – No Hoodwink | Rune Eaters Arise | 12.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7501 |
| 08.08.26 | Ilbirs eSports – No Hoodwink | Ilbirs eSports | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7492 |
| 07.08.26 | Zero Tenacity – No Hoodwink | No Hoodwink | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7483 |
| 05.08.26 | Team Liquid – 1w Team | 1w Team | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7474 |
| 04.08.26 | Yakult Brothers – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 12.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7465 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 10.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7456 |
| 03.08.26 | Vici Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Vici Gaming | 3.60 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7447 |
| 03.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 3.30 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7438 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | GLYPH | 14.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7429 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Liquid – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 5.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7419 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | OG | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7410 |
| 02.08.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7400 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | VooDooSh Team | 4.20 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7391 |
| 01.08.26 | Daxak Team – Team avice | Daxak Team | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7381 |
| 01.08.26 | Midas Club – Team Resilience | Midas Club | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7371 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | BETBOOM Team | 11.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -7361 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Yakult Brothers | 14.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -7354 |
| 31.07.26 | L1ga Team – REKONIX | L1ga Team | 8.50 | 7 | lost | -7 | -7347 |
| 31.07.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 7.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -7339 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 11.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -7332 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 3.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -7325 |
| 30.07.26 | Team Falcons – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7317 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7310 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team | Nigma Galaxy | 14.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7302 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH Team | Rostik Team | 10.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7294 |
| 29.07.26 | NS Team – Stray Team | NS Team | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7286 |
| 28.07.26 | YBN Team – Team avice | YBN Team | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7279 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team – TpaBoMaH Team | NS Team | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7271 |
| 27.07.26 | NS Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 3.60 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7263 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Level UP | Nemiga Gaming | 7.50 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7255 |
| 20.07.26 | Level UP – Ilbirs eSports | Ilbirs eSports | 10.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7246 |
| 20.07.26 | Zero Tenacity – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 3.60 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7238 |
| 20.07.26 | Team Lynx – PuckChamp | Team Lynx | 10.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -7230 |
| 19.07.26 | Vici Gaming – Team Yandex | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7221 |
| 18.07.26 | Team Yandex – PARIVISION | Team Yandex | 6.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7213 |
| 18.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7204 |
| 17.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM Team | Nigma Galaxy | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7196 |
| 14.07.26 | Team Liquid – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7187 |
| 12.07.26 | 1w Team – Team Yandex | 1w Team | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7178 |
| 12.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 2.90 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7169 |
| 11.07.26 | PlayTime – Nigma Galaxy | PlayTime | 5.80 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7160 |
| 10.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Spirit | REKONIX | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7151 |
| 10.07.26 | Team Nemesis – Vici Gaming | Team Nemesis | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7142 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Yandex – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -7132 |
| 08.07.26 | Vici Gaming – PARIVISION | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7123 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Spirit – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7113 |
| 08.07.26 | GamerLegion – Xtreme Gaming | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7104 |
| 08.07.26 | Poor Rangers – BETBOOM Team | Poor Rangers | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7094 |
| 07.07.26 | Inner Circle – 1w Team | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -7084 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.