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Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)

D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

profit
-10628u
ROI
-89%
win rate
3%
bets
1194
drawdown
1062.9%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)

💰
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-260u
period 24top-up-350u
period 23top-up-441u
period 22top-up-494u
period 21top-up-540u
period 20top-up-360u
period 19top-up-467u
period 18top-up-559u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale70%-1000-100%100%Select
1% of bankroll11943%-8591-89.5%859.1%Select
Flat (10 units)11943%-10628-89%1062.9%Selected
2% of bankroll11943%-14126-90.1%1412.6%Select
5% of bankroll11943%-21569-91.7%2156.9%Select
Quarter Kelly11943%-23859-95.3%2385.9%Select
10% of bankroll11943%-24247-93.4%2424.7%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1194, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0010lost-10-9628
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.0010lost-10-9618
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.0010lost-10-9608
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.0010lost-10-9598
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.0010lost-10-9588
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.3010lost-10-9578
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0010lost-10-9568
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0010lost-10-9558
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0010lost-10-9548
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.0010lost-10-9538
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.0010lost-10-9528
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.0010lost-10-9518
08.08.26Ilbirs eSports – No HoodwinkIlbirs eSports13.0010lost-10-9508
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.0010lost-10-9498
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w Team1w Team15.0010lost-10-9488
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersRune Eaters12.0010lost-10-9478
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0010lost-10-9468
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersVici Gaming3.6010lost-10-9458
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming3.3010lost-10-9448
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0010lost-10-9438
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingLGD Gaming5.0010lost-10-9428
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0010lost-10-9418
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team13.0010lost-10-9408
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2010lost-10-9398
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceDaxak Team11.0010lost-10-9388
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceMidas Club14.0010lost-10-9378
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0010lost-10-9368
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.0010lost-10-9358
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXL1ga Team8.5010lost-10-9348
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion7.0010lost-10-9338
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.0010lost-10-9328
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.0010lost-10-9318
30.07.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0010lost-10-9308
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.0010lost-10-9298
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.0010lost-10-9288
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.0010lost-10-9278
29.07.26NS Team – Stray TeamNS Team13.0010lost-10-9268
28.07.26YBN Team – Team aviceYBN Team13.0010lost-10-9258
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.0010lost-10-9248
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team3.6010lost-10-9238
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Level UPNemiga Gaming7.5010lost-10-9228
20.07.26Level UP – Ilbirs eSportsIlbirs eSports10.0010lost-10-9218
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming3.6010lost-10-9208
20.07.26Team Lynx – PuckChampTeam Lynx10.0010lost-10-9198
19.07.26Vici Gaming – Team YandexVici Gaming15.0010lost-10-9188
18.07.26Team Yandex – PARIVISIONTeam Yandex6.0010lost-10-9178
18.07.26BETBOOM Team – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0010lost-10-9168
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamNigma Galaxy15.0010lost-10-9158
14.07.26Team Liquid – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.0010lost-10-9148
12.07.261w Team – Team Yandex1w Team15.0010lost-10-9138
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.9010lost-10-9128
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyPlayTime5.8010lost-10-9118
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritREKONIX15.0010lost-10-9108
10.07.26Team Nemesis – Vici GamingTeam Nemesis13.0010lost-10-9098
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleInner Circle15.0010lost-10-9088
08.07.26Vici Gaming – PARIVISIONVici Gaming15.0010lost-10-9078
08.07.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis15.0010lost-10-9068
08.07.26GamerLegion – Xtreme GamingGamerLegion15.0010lost-10-9058
08.07.26Poor Rangers – BETBOOM TeamPoor Rangers15.0010lost-10-9048
07.07.26Inner Circle – 1w TeamInner Circle15.0010lost-10-9038
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.