Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.
profit
-14163u
ROI
-89.7%
win rate
3%
bets
2417
drawdown
1416.3%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-395u
period 24top-up-381u
period 23top-up-532u
period 22top-up-718u
period 21top-up-605u
period 20top-up-590u
period 19top-up-601u
period 18top-up-708u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1000 | -100% | 100% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 514 | 5% | -4371 | -85.1% | 437.1% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 2417 | 3% | -14163 | -89.7% | 1416.3% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 2417 | 3% | -19991 | -90.1% | 1999.1% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 2417 | 3% | -24203 | -90.8% | 2420.3% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 2417 | 3% | -24817 | -92% | 2481.7% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 2417 | 3% | -24863 | -90.9% | 2486.3% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2417, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -13163 |
| 20.08.26 | PARIVISION – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -13157 |
| 16.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Yandex | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -13151 |
| 15.08.26 | OG – GamerLegion | OG | 15.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -13144 |
| 15.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 11.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -13138 |
| 15.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 14.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -13132 |
| 15.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – Aurora Gaming | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -13125 |
| 15.08.26 | 1w Team – Team Liquid | 1w Team | 5.30 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13119 |
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13112 |
| 15.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13106 |
| 15.08.26 | Team Falcons – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13099 |
| 14.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Nigma Galaxy | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13092 |
| 14.08.26 | Team Yandex – Team Liquid | Team Yandex | 4.80 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13085 |
| 13.08.26 | OG – Nigma Galaxy | OG | 5.80 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13078 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13071 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13064 |
| 12.08.26 | Level UP – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 4.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13057 |
| 11.08.26 | Rune Eaters – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13050 |
| 11.08.26 | Yellow Submarine – Zero Tenacity | Yellow Submarine | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13043 |
| 11.08.26 | Rune Eaters – MOUZ | MOUZ | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13036 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters – Natus Vincere | Rune Eaters | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13028 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – No Hoodwink | Rune Eaters Arise | 12.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -13021 |
| 08.08.26 | Ilbirs eSports – No Hoodwink | Ilbirs eSports | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -13013 |
| 07.08.26 | Team Jenz – Nemiga Gaming | Team Jenz | 14.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -13006 |
| 07.08.26 | Zero Tenacity – No Hoodwink | No Hoodwink | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -12998 |
| 06.08.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Power Rangers | Ilbirs eSports | 6.60 | 8 | lost | -8 | -12990 |
| 05.08.26 | Team Liquid – 1w Team | 1w Team | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -12982 |
| 05.08.26 | PlayTime – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -12974 |
| 05.08.26 | 1w Team – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -12966 |
| 04.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Falcons | Team Liquid | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -12958 |
| 04.08.26 | Yakult Brothers – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 12.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -12950 |
| 04.08.26 | PlayTime – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -12942 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 10.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -12933 |
| 03.08.26 | Vici Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Vici Gaming | 3.60 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12925 |
| 03.08.26 | OG – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12916 |
| 03.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 3.30 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12908 |
| 03.08.26 | LGD Gaming – 1w Team | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12899 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | GLYPH | 14.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12890 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Liquid – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 5.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12881 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | OG | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12873 |
| 02.08.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12863 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Falcons – 1w Team | 1w Team | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12854 |
| 02.08.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Resilience | Yellow Submarine | 14.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12845 |
| 01.08.26 | Stray Team – TpaBoMaH Team | Stray Team | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12836 |
| 01.08.26 | GLYPH – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 6.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -12826 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | VooDooSh Team | 4.20 | 10 | lost | -10 | -12817 |
| 01.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -12807 |
| 01.08.26 | Daxak Team – Team avice | Daxak Team | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -12798 |
| 01.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -12788 |
| 01.08.26 | Midas Club – Team Resilience | Midas Club | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -12778 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | BETBOOM Team | 11.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -12768 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Yakult Brothers | 14.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -12762 |
| 31.07.26 | Enjoy Boys – GLYPH | Enjoy Boys | 14.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -12755 |
| 31.07.26 | L1ga Team – REKONIX | L1ga Team | 8.50 | 6 | lost | -6 | -12749 |
| 31.07.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 7.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -12742 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 11.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -12736 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 3.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -12729 |
| 30.07.26 | Team Falcons – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -12723 |
| 30.07.26 | Stray Team – TpaBoMaH Team | TpaBoMaH Team | 12.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -12716 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 13.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -12709 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.