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Dota 2 betting strategies

Backtested on 4994 matches, odds modelled from ratings
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
Your strategy: Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 · 2% of bankrollits recommendations show up on match pages
All results are computed on historical matches: probability is built walk-forward with Elo, and stake size scales off a 1000-unit bankroll. "Bankroll reset" sets how often the bankroll returns to its starting sum — profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up.
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 210% of bankrollno reset

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+871u
profit
+2.6%
ROI
79%
win rate
54.3%
drawdown
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 25% of bankrollno reset

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+462u
profit
+3.9%
ROI
79%
win rate
30.7%
drawdown
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 22% of bankrollno reset

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+182u
profit
+4.8%
ROI
79%
win rate
13.2%
drawdown
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 2Martingaleno reset

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+102u
profit
+4.4%
ROI
79%
win rate
13.8%
drawdown
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 21% of bankrollno reset

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+90u
profit
+5.2%
ROI
79%
win rate
6.7%
drawdown
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)no reset

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+89u
profit
+5.6%
ROI
79%
win rate
6%
drawdown
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 2Martingaleno reset

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

+53u
profit
+0.5%
ROI
64%
win rate
50.7%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 2Martingaleno reset

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

+53u
profit
+0.5%
ROI
64%
win rate
50.7%
drawdown
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)no reset

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

+18u
profit
+0.4%
ROI
64%
win rate
14.7%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)no reset

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

+18u
profit
+0.4%
ROI
64%
win rate
14.7%
drawdown
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 21% of bankrollno reset

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

+3u
profit
+0.1%
ROI
64%
win rate
15.2%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 21% of bankrollno reset

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

+3u
profit
+0.1%
ROI
64%
win rate
15.2%
drawdown
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellyno reset

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellyno reset

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellyno reset

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellyno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellyno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellyno reset

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellyno reset

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellyno reset

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)no reset

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 21% of bankrollno reset

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 22% of bankrollno reset

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 25% of bankrollno reset

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 210% of bankrollno reset

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellyno reset

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 2Martingaleno reset

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)no reset

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 21% of bankrollno reset

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 22% of bankrollno reset

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 25% of bankrollno reset

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 210% of bankrollno reset

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellyno reset

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 2Martingaleno reset

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 22% of bankrollno reset

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

-23u
profit
-0.2%
ROI
64%
win rate
29.1%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 22% of bankrollno reset

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

-23u
profit
-0.2%
ROI
64%
win rate
29.1%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 21% of bankrollno reset

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

-105u
profit
-100%
ROI
0%
win rate
10.5%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)no reset

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

-110u
profit
-100%
ROI
0%
win rate
11%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 22% of bankrollno reset

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

-199u
profit
-100%
ROI
0%
win rate
19.9%
drawdown
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 25% of bankrollno reset

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

-246u
profit
-1.2%
ROI
64%
win rate
61.9%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 25% of bankrollno reset

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

-246u
profit
-1.2%
ROI
64%
win rate
61.9%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 21% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

-269u
profit
-40.4%
ROI
17%
win rate
28.7%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)no reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

-305u
profit
-39.1%
ROI
17%
win rate
33.2%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 25% of bankrollno reset

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

-431u
profit
-100%
ROI
0%
win rate
43.1%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 22% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

-473u
profit
-41.7%
ROI
17%
win rate
49.8%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 21% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

-602u
profit
-17.8%
ROI
36%
win rate
60.6%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 21% of bankrollno reset

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

-617u
profit
-18.8%
ROI
36%
win rate
62.5%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 21% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

-625u
profit
-27.2%
ROI
30%
win rate
63.1%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 210% of bankrollno reset

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

-686u
profit
-100%
ROI
0%
win rate
68.6%
drawdown
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 210% of bankrollno reset

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

-734u
profit
-3.1%
ROI
64%
win rate
89.8%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 210% of bankrollno reset

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

-734u
profit
-3.1%
ROI
64%
win rate
89.8%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 25% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

-820u
profit
-44.6%
ROI
17%
win rate
83.8%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 22% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

-852u
profit
-17.6%
ROI
36%
win rate
85.4%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 22% of bankrollno reset

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

-862u
profit
-18.8%
ROI
36%
win rate
86.8%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 22% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

-866u
profit
-27.7%
ROI
30%
win rate
87.1%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)no reset

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

-890u
profit
-18%
ROI
36%
win rate
89.1%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)no reset

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

-928u
profit
-18.8%
ROI
36%
win rate
92.9%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)no reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

-955u
profit
-26.4%
ROI
30%
win rate
95.5%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 210% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

-978u
profit
-48.7%
ROI
17%
win rate
98.1%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 25% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

-995u
profit
-17%
ROI
36%
win rate
99.5%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 25% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

-996u
profit
-27.9%
ROI
30%
win rate
99.6%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 25% of bankrollno reset

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

-996u
profit
-19%
ROI
36%
win rate
99.6%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 210% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

-1000u
profit
-17.5%
ROI
36%
win rate
100%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 210% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

-1000u
profit
-27.2%
ROI
30%
win rate
100%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 210% of bankrollno reset

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

-1000u
profit
-19.5%
ROI
36%
win rate
100%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 2Martingaleno resetruin

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

-1000u
profit
-24.5%
ROI
40%
win rate
100%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 2Martingaleno resetruin

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

-1000u
profit
-34.9%
ROI
28%
win rate
100%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 2Martingaleno resetruin

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

-1000u
profit
-100%
ROI
0%
win rate
100%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 2Martingaleno resetruin

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

-1000u
profit
-100%
ROI
0%
win rate
100%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 2Martingaleno resetruin

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

-1000u
profit
-22.4%
ROI
38%
win rate
100%
drawdown
Dota 2 betting strategies on historical matches: favorite, underdog at odds 2+/3+/5+, value bets, 1–10% bankroll stake, quarter Kelly, martingale. Odds modelled from the Elo rating. Starting bankroll 1000 units.