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Dota 2 betting strategies

Backtested on 261 matches, odds modelled from ratings
Odds are modelled from the Elo rating (walk-forward, no look-ahead) with a bookmaker margin — the rating tracks the real pre-match line closely. Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
Your strategy: Model favorite (Elo) · 2% of bankrollits recommendations show up on match pages
All results are computed on historical matches: probability is built walk-forward with Elo, and stake size scales off a 1000-unit bankroll. "Bankroll reset" sets how often the bankroll returns to its starting sum — profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up.
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 210% of bankrollno reset

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

+350u
profit
+7.4%
ROI
64%
win rate
41%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 210% of bankrollno reset

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

+350u
profit
+7.4%
ROI
64%
win rate
41%
drawdown
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 25% of bankrollno reset

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

+201u
profit
+9.6%
ROI
64%
win rate
22.6%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 25% of bankrollno reset

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

+201u
profit
+9.6%
ROI
64%
win rate
22.6%
drawdown
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 22% of bankrollno reset

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

+85u
profit
+11.1%
ROI
64%
win rate
9.6%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 22% of bankrollno reset

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

+85u
profit
+11.1%
ROI
64%
win rate
9.6%
drawdown
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 2Martingaleno reset

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

+61u
profit
+5.8%
ROI
64%
win rate
27.8%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 2Martingaleno reset

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

+61u
profit
+5.8%
ROI
64%
win rate
27.8%
drawdown
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)no reset

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

+43u
profit
+12%
ROI
64%
win rate
4.7%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)no reset

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

+43u
profit
+12%
ROI
64%
win rate
4.7%
drawdown
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 21% of bankrollno reset

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

+43u
profit
+11.5%
ROI
64%
win rate
4.9%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 21% of bankrollno reset

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

+43u
profit
+11.5%
ROI
64%
win rate
4.9%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 2Martingaleno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

+17u
profit
+1.9%
ROI
31%
win rate
31%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 21% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

-53u
profit
-33.9%
ROI
31%
win rate
5.5%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)no reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

-53u
profit
-33.2%
ROI
31%
win rate
5.7%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 2Martingaleno reset

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

-95u
profit
-4.6%
ROI
36%
win rate
60.1%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 21% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

-96u
profit
-28.3%
ROI
36%
win rate
10.5%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 21% of bankrollno reset

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

-96u
profit
-28.4%
ROI
36%
win rate
10.5%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)no reset

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

-99u
profit
-27.6%
ROI
36%
win rate
11%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)no reset

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

-99u
profit
-27.6%
ROI
36%
win rate
11%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 22% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

-104u
profit
-34.7%
ROI
31%
win rate
10.8%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 2Martingaleno reset

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

-112u
profit
-5.3%
ROI
36%
win rate
60.6%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 22% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

-186u
profit
-29%
ROI
36%
win rate
20.1%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 22% of bankrollno reset

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

-186u
profit
-29.3%
ROI
36%
win rate
20.1%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 25% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

-250u
profit
-36.9%
ROI
31%
win rate
25.5%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 25% of bankrollno reset

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

-419u
profit
-31.8%
ROI
36%
win rate
44.4%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 25% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

-419u
profit
-30.9%
ROI
36%
win rate
44.4%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 210% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

-463u
profit
-40.9%
ROI
31%
win rate
46.3%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 210% of bankrollno reset

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

-693u
profit
-36.5%
ROI
36%
win rate
71.8%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 210% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

-693u
profit
-34.1%
ROI
36%
win rate
71.8%
drawdown
selected
Always the favorite
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellyno reset

Bets the favorite of every match — the team with the lower odds. A simple baseline: hits often, but the low odds usually leave profit small or negative after the margin over the long run.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)no reset

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 21% of bankrollno reset

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 22% of bankrollno reset

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 25% of bankrollno reset

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 210% of bankrollno reset

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellyno reset

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Favorite at odds ≤ 1.5
D2Dota 2Martingaleno reset

Bets only the heavy favorite at odds ≤ 1.5. Very high hit rate, but tiny odds: a single upset wipes out the profit from many wins.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Always the underdog
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellyno reset

Bets the underdog of every match — the team with the higher odds. Wins rarely, but each win pays back a losing streak. Needs strong nerves and bankroll discipline.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 2.0
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellyno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 2.0. The classic "undervalued underdog" idea: they pay at least double, so the strategy can profit even winning under half its bets.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)no reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 21% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 22% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 25% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 210% of bankrollno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellyno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 3.0
D2Dota 2Martingaleno reset

Bets the underdog at odds ≥ 3.0 — a solid dog. Fewer wins, but each pays triple; the variance and drawdowns are noticeably longer.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)no reset

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 21% of bankrollno reset

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 22% of bankrollno reset

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 25% of bankrollno reset

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 210% of bankrollno reset

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellyno reset

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Underdog at odds ≥ 5.0
D2Dota 2Martingaleno reset

Bets the clear underdog at odds ≥ 5.0. Rare but big wins with long losing streaks and deep drawdowns in between. Only for a large bankroll and patience.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Model favorite (Elo)
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellyno reset

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Model underdog (Elo)
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellyno reset

Bets the Elo model's underdog — the team with under 50% probability. Often the market underdog too, but driven by form and rating rather than the odds.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)no reset

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 21% of bankrollno reset

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 22% of bankrollno reset

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 25% of bankrollno reset

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 210% of bankrollno reset

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellyno reset

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value: edge ≥ 5%
D2Dota 2Martingaleno reset

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)no reset

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 21% of bankrollno reset

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 22% of bankrollno reset

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 25% of bankrollno reset

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 210% of bankrollno reset

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 2Quarter Kellyno reset

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
selected
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
D2Dota 2Martingaleno reset

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

+0u
profit
+0%
ROI
0%
win rate
0%
drawdown
Dota 2 betting strategies on historical matches: favorite, underdog at odds 2+/3+/5+, value bets, 1–10% bankroll stake, quarter Kelly, martingale. Odds modelled from the Elo rating. Starting bankroll 1000 units.