Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction0021win 2:0
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
WWojtekloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
021
Abaddonoften banned
Ark · 3 games
Clockwerk
Steelborco · 3 games
Snapfire
Steelborco · 3 games
Hoodwink
Steelborco · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ark · 2 games
Drow Rangeroften banned
Ark · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
Ark · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ark · 1 game
Wojtek
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
791 picks · 559 bans
Tiny
568 picks · 400 bans
Treant Protector
524 picks · 568 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 429 bans
Nature's Prophet
452 picks · 733 bans
Death Prophet
416 picks · 824 bans
Snapfire
409 picks · 290 bans
Ember Spirit
362 picks · 852 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 64%
Hero pool strength51% 021
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Wojtek
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed53:26
021 35%Wojtek 65%
The model gave 65% on Wojtek — the game was taken by 021 in 39:14.
Game 2prediction missed46:26
021 35%Wojtek 65%
The model gave 65% on Wojtek — the game was taken by 021 in 42:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteWojtek · 65%
Series result021 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2