Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
0-900loss 0:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:1
CCrewmateswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
0-900
Witch Doctorsignature
Jericho · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Greedy · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Greedy · 2 games
Marsoften banned
sl4d1n- · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Jericho · 2 games
Windrangeroften banned
sl4d1n- · 2 games
Axeoften banned
Greedy · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
Greedy · 1 game
Crewmates
Abaddon
DFlash · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
4nalog · 2 games
Iooften banned
FCR · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
4nalog · 2 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
FCR · 1 game
Axeoften banned
H1j4ck · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
DFlash · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
4nalog · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
187 picks · 419 bans
Mars
174 picks · 319 bans
Void Spirit
163 picks · 230 bans
Earth Spirit
162 picks · 133 bans
Phoenix
139 picks · 158 bans
Keeper of the Light
130 picks · 215 bans
Nyx Assassin
123 picks · 418 bans
Rubick
119 picks · 67 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 29%
Hero pool strength61% 0-900
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Crewmates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:9
0-900 47%Crewmates 53%
The model gave 53% on Crewmates — the game was taken by 0-900 in 26:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetGreedy
Phantom LancerFCR
Earth Spiritsl4d1n-
Queen of PainH1j4ck
ClockwerkJericho
Void Spirit4nalog
45% · 24 games
UndyingDFlash
Game 2prediction missed42:30
0-900 48%Crewmates 52%
The model gave 52% on Crewmates — the game was taken by 0-900 in 37:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterGreedy
Phantom AssassinFCR
Earthshakersl4d1n-
Dark SeerH1j4ck
Witch DoctorJericho
Pangolier4nalog
43% · 15 games
GrimstrokeDFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteCrewmates · 60%
Series resultCrewmates 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2