Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
0-900loss 0:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Mad Kingswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
0-900
Witch Doctorsignature
Jericho · 8 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Greedy · 3 games
Windranger
sl4d1n- · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Greedy · 2 games
Earth Spirit
sl4d1n- · 2 games
Earthshaker
sl4d1n- · 2 games
Grimstroke
Jericho · 2 games
Marsoften banned
sl4d1n- · 2 games
Mad Kings
Wraith Kingoften banned
NaoG · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Sacred · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Tano · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Sacred · 3 games
Leshracoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
285 picks · 571 bans
Void Spirit
254 picks · 323 bans
Mars
226 picks · 404 bans
Earth Spirit
211 picks · 167 bans
Keeper of the Light
186 picks · 336 bans
Nyx Assassin
183 picks · 569 bans
Phoenix
179 picks · 209 bans
Wraith King
179 picks · 234 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 20%
Hero pool strength57% 0-900
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% 0-900
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
0-900 53%Mad Kings 47%
The model gave 53% on 0-900 — the game was taken by Mad Kings.
Model check result
Model favorite0-900 · 53%
Series resultMad Kings 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1