?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Lynxloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ariel · 18 games
44%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 17 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
мистер мораль · 17 games
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 15 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 15 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 14 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 14 games
29%

Team Lynx

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 4 games
25%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 3 games
0%
Slardar
Slardar
StoneBank · 3 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith King
StoneBank · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
DarkLord^ · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
lightless · 2 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
DarkLord^ · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
459 picks · 453 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
409 picks · 575 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
320 picks · 147 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
295 picks · 601 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
282 picks · 515 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
278 picks · 155 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
274 picks · 504 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
273 picks · 570 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:16
4Pirates 71%Team Lynx 29%
The model gave 71% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 32:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand Kingмистер мораль
55% · 59 games48% · 186 games
Templar AssassinDarkLord^
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNattyNarwhal
54% · 79 games48% · 184 games
TidehunterStoneBank
Tidehunter
Slark
SlarkOtaker
50% · 24 games
Tiny
Tinyariel
51% · 124 games
Jakiro
JakiroPERDAN4IK
50% · 84 games
Game 2prediction correct26:9
4Pirates 70%Team Lynx 30%
The model gave 70% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 24:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingOtaker
60% · 7 games54% · 65 games
MedusaDarkLord^
Medusa
Sniper
SniperNattyNarwhal
36% · 40 games53% · 115 games
Sand KingStoneBank
Sand King
Slardar
Slardarмистер мораль
47% · 32 games
Silencer
SilencerPERDAN4IK
48% · 36 games
Ringmaster
Ringmasterariel
53% · 65 games
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 85%
Series result4Pirates 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2