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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 18 games
39%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 13 games
46%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 12 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 11 games
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 11 games
45%

Shopify Rebellion

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 15 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 14 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 14 games
50%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Pakazs · 13 games
69%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Skem · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
459 picks · 452 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
414 picks · 575 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
319 picks · 147 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
299 picks · 601 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
282 picks · 515 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
279 picks · 156 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
276 picks · 572 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
274 picks · 510 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 6
Model total55% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:15
Wildcard Gaming 48%Shopify Rebellion 52%
The model gave 52% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 32:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYamSun
47% · 121 game56% · 174 games
GyrocopterTimado
Gyrocopter
Kunkka
KunkkaRCY
42% · 77 games51% · 184 games
Sand KingYopaj
Sand King
Night Stalker
Night StalkerFayde
53% · 82 games37% · 70 games
AbaddonDavai
Abaddon
Venomancer
VenomancerSpeeed
60% · 29 games50% · 58 games
SlarkHellscream
Slark
Jakiro
JakiroBignum
53% · 273 games52% · 96 games
Ancient ApparitionSkem
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct14:41
Wildcard Gaming 47%Shopify Rebellion 53%
The model gave 53% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 37:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRCY
53% · 258 games43% · 74 games
AbaddonTimado
Abaddon
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeFayde
46% · 196 games54% · 138 games
Dark SeerDavai
Dark Seer
Underlord
UnderlordYamSun
51% · 84 games45% · 262 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBignum
44% · 80 games54% · 200 games
ClockwerkHellscream
Clockwerk
Ringmaster
RingmasterSpeeed
53% · 79 games65% · 23 games
BaneSkem
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2