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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:1
MOUZloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 16 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 13 games
46%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Nine · 12 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 12 games
42%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 11 games
27%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ceb · 11 games
27%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 11 games
18%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 11 games
27%

MOUZ

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 21 game
52%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 16 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Force · 16 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Fly · 15 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lowskill · 15 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Supream^ · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
457 picks · 447 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
414 picks · 576 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
317 picks · 147 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
301 picks · 604 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
282 picks · 512 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
280 picks · 156 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
278 picks · 507 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
276 picks · 565 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 63%
Hero pool strength59% MOUZ
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total66% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:53
OG 41%MOUZ 59%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by OG in 51:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyShad
48% · 370 games47% · 281 game
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Invoker
InvokerStormstormer
51% · 154 games43% · 287 games
Ember SpiritW1sh-
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterMikSa`
57% · 120 games43% · 173 games
Marszeal
Mars
Ringmaster
RingmasterKidaro
57% · 93 games55% · 87 games
Shadow ShamanEkki
Shadow Shaman
Lion
LionDaze
52% · 155 games48% · 64 games
SlarkSeleri
Slark
Game 2prediction correct28:47
OG 41%MOUZ 59%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 48:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritStormstormer
56% · 226 games42% · 72 games
Queen of PainW1sh-
Queen of Pain
Abaddon
AbaddonShad
51% · 70 games44% · 116 games
SvenKami
Sven
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMikSa`
52% · 214 games54% · 126 games
Doomzeal
Doom
Slark
SlarkDaze
52% · 62 games48% · 100 games
Nature's ProphetEkki
Nature's Prophet
Ringmaster
RingmasterKidaro
43% · 146 games53% · 304 games
JakiroSeleri
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 66%
Accuracy by game1 of 2