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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Quantum Teamloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Lynxwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Quantum Team

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 12 games
42%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 12 games
33%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 11 games
27%
Batrider
Batrider
kolya_kaBAN68 · 8 games
13%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 8 games
13%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 8 games
13%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 8 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshrac
kolya_kaBAN68 · 7 games
43%

Team Lynx

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 4 games
25%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 3 games
0%
Wraith King
Wraith King
StoneBank · 3 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
DarkLord^ · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
lightless · 2 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
DarkLord^ · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
456 picks · 443 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
419 picks · 580 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
316 picks · 145 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
304 picks · 611 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
284 picks · 157 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
283 picks · 510 bans
47%
Bristleback
Bristleback
281 picks · 514 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
275 picks · 567 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Quantum Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:25
Quantum Team 55%Team Lynx 45%
The model gave 55% on Quantum Team — the game was taken by Quantum Team in 54:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLukas
59% · 91 game39% · 224 games
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterRvze
59% · 135 games45% · 82 games
AbaddonStoneBank
Abaddon
Brewmaster
Brewmasterkolya_kaBAN68
62% · 26 games
Warlock
WarlockFezor
53% · 54 games
Game 2prediction missed12:27
Quantum Team 51%Team Lynx 49%
The model gave 51% on Quantum Team — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 25:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaLukas
47% · 13 games61% · 46 games
SlarkDarkLord^
Slark
Beastmaster
Beastmasterkolya_kaBAN68
41% · 42 games52% · 74 games
SlardarStoneBank
Slardar
Pangolier
PangolierRvze
46% · 46 games
Silencer
SilencerFezor
41% · 19 games
Game 3prediction missed35:30
Quantum Team 54%Team Lynx 46%
The model gave 54% on Quantum Team — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 56:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLukas
54% · 99 games49% · 217 games
TerrorbladeDarkLord^
Terrorblade
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinRvze
53% · 60 games49% · 82 games
SlardarStoneBank
Slardar
Mars
Marskolya_kaBAN68
44% · 40 games
Jakiro
JakiroFezor
52% · 100 games
Model check result
Model favoriteQuantum Team · 60%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3