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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
10%90%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 29 games
34%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 28 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 26 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 24 games
42%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 22 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 21 game
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 19 games
47%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 18 games
67%

Shopify Rebellion

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 14 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 13 games
46%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Pakazs · 13 games
69%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Yopaj · 13 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 13 games
46%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Skem · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
455 picks · 442 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
419 picks · 581 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
316 picks · 143 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
305 picks · 612 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
284 picks · 160 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
283 picks · 510 bans
47%
Bristleback
Bristleback
280 picks · 518 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
274 picks · 567 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:29
One Move 23%Shopify Rebellion 77%
The model gave 77% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 34:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenEyesight
36% · 90 games56% · 152 games
KunkkaTimado
Kunkka
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzvёzd
42% · 262 games60% · 326 games
BristlebackDavai
Bristleback
Tiny
TinyDifference
51% · 332 games56% · 405 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroBb3px
45% · 243 games57% · 91 game
SlarkHellscream
Slark
Windranger
Windrangernot me
41% · 175 games54% · 128 games
MiranaSkem
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct12:24
One Move 24%Shopify Rebellion 76%
The model gave 76% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 39:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinzvёzd
51% · 166 games58% · 229 games
MorphlingTimado
Morphling
Abaddon
AbaddonEyesight
45% · 92 games47% · 350 games
Dragon KnightYopaj
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinyDifference
52% · 532 games55% · 350 games
BeastmasterDavai
Beastmaster
Silencer
SilencerBb3px
47% · 87 games45% · 167 games
WindrangerHellscream
Windranger
Tusk
Tusknot me
48% · 360 games51% · 141 game
Crystal MaidenSkem
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 90%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2