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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Pirateswin 2:1
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Passion UAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

4Pirates

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 20 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ariel · 18 games
44%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 16 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
мистер мораль · 16 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 15 games
60%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 15 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
PERDAN4IK · 15 games
40%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 13 games
46%

Passion UA

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 28 games
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 27 games
41%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Batyuk · 24 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 24 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Fernans · 22 games
45%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 20 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
kreker · 18 games
39%
Tusk
Tusk
flacko · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
455 picks · 440 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
421 picks · 589 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
313 picks · 143 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
309 picks · 623 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
288 picks · 163 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
285 picks · 530 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
283 picks · 512 bans
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
279 picks · 573 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 37%
Hero pool strength52% Passion UA
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total66% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:23
4Pirates 58%Passion UA 42%
The model gave 58% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 47:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyOtaker
49% · 355 games54% · 153 games
Templar AssassinCrystallize
Templar Assassin
Sniper
SniperNattyNarwhal
50% · 101 game55% · 154 games
TimbersawBatyuk
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand Kingмистер мораль
49% · 236 games57% · 103 games
Tinkerkreker
Tinker
Ringmaster
Ringmasterariel
49% · 139 games42% · 271 game
Ember Spiritniche
Ember Spirit
Silencer
SilencerPERDAN4IK
43% · 75 games51% · 225 games
WindrangerQBFY
Windranger
Game 2prediction missed10:46
4Pirates 59%Passion UA 41%
The model gave 59% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Passion UA in 31:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinOtaker
48% · 258 games59% · 112 games
DoomCrystallize
Doom
Timbersaw
Timbersawмистер мораль
50% · 193 games51% · 212 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Kunkka
KunkkaNattyNarwhal
46% · 165 games46% · 270 games
Tinyniche
Tiny
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPERDAN4IK
55% · 154 games44% · 156 games
WindrangerQBFY
Windranger
Slark
Slarkariel
50% · 91 game53% · 111 games
Ringmasterkreker
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct47:20
4Pirates 57%Passion UA 43%
The model gave 57% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 48:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingOtaker
49% · 50 games55% · 140 games
Nature's Prophetniche
Nature's Prophet
Bristleback
Bristlebackмистер мораль
55% · 194 games49% · 243 games
DoomCrystallize
Doom
Tiny
TinyNattyNarwhal
48% · 272 games56% · 143 games
TidehunterBatyuk
Tidehunter
Windranger
Windrangerariel
43% · 159 games59% · 80 games
Shadow ShamanQBFY
Shadow Shaman
Warlock
WarlockPERDAN4IK
40% · 120 games48% · 189 games
Ringmasterkreker
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 66%
Series result4Pirates 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3