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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
AVULUSloss 1:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:1
HULIGANIloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 36 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 28 games
50%
Batrider
Batrider
Ekki · 26 games
42%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Smiling Knight · 24 games
46%
Lion
Lion
Ekki · 22 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SoNNeikO · 21 game
52%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 20 games
45%

HULIGANI

Batrider
Batrider
queezy · 19 games
37%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Alberkaaa · 19 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 18 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mirage · 16 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RESPECT · 14 games
36%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
mrls · 14 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 14 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
v1olent- · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
452 picks · 438 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
421 picks · 586 bans
49%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
311 picks · 623 bans
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
309 picks · 141 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
287 picks · 163 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
284 picks · 531 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
283 picks · 508 bans
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
281 picks · 569 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% AVULUS
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:2
AVULUS 44%HULIGANI 56%
The model gave 56% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by AVULUS in 29:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMo13ei
44% · 100 games52% · 182 games
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaSmiling Knight
42% · 80 games48% · 67 games
Abaddonv1olent-
Abaddon
Enigma
EnigmaXibbe
56% · 93 games47% · 152 games
Dark SeerMalik
Dark Seer
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamandEsire
54% · 64 games59% · 77 games
Keeper of the Lightmrls
Keeper of the Light
Jakiro
JakiroFly
51% · 307 games48% · 166 games
RingmasterRESPECT
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct2:32
AVULUS 43%HULIGANI 57%
The model gave 57% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 32:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
57% · 97 games43% · 121 game
Nature's Prophetv1olent-
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierXibbe
50% · 174 games51% · 237 games
Dark SeerMalik
Dark Seer
Puck
PuckMo13ei
51% · 80 games50% · 66 games
Rikierase
Riki
Windranger
WindrangerdEsire
50% · 161 game52% · 60 games
SilencerRESPECT
Silencer
Elder Titan
Elder TitanFly
56% · 102 games42% · 130 games
Ringmastermrls
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2