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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Quantum Teamwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 29 games
34%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 28 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 26 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 24 games
42%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 22 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 20 games
35%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 19 games
47%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 18 games
67%

Quantum Team

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
takizawa · 12 games
42%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Rvze · 12 games
33%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 11 games
27%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 9 games
11%
Batrider
Batrider
kolya_kaBAN68 · 8 games
13%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Rvze · 8 games
13%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 8 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshrac
kolya_kaBAN68 · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
450 picks · 436 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
422 picks · 588 bans
49%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
311 picks · 625 bans
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
309 picks · 141 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
290 picks · 163 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
284 picks · 532 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
283 picks · 509 bans
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
282 picks · 565 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 25%
Hero pool strength55% One Move
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total81% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
One Move 81%Quantum Team 19%
The model gave 81% on One Move — the game was taken by Quantum Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 81%
Series resultQuantum Team 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1