?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
Runa Teamloss 0:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 6 games
67%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 4 games
75%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Mary_y · 3 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
queezy · 3 games
67%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 3 games
100%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Mary_y · 3 games
100%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
nicky`cool · 3 games
33%
Warlock
Warlock
Mary_y · 3 games
33%

Virtus.pro

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 15 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 14 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 14 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 11 games
45%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
TA2000 · 10 games
40%
Batrider
Batrider
prblms · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Antares · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
448 picks · 431 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
424 picks · 593 bans
49%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
314 picks · 627 bans
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
306 picks · 139 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
294 picks · 164 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
285 picks · 535 bans
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
283 picks · 563 bans
52%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
283 picks · 511 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:12
Runa Team 32%Virtus.pro 68%
The model gave 68% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShigetsu
55% · 341 game46% · 368 games
Dragon KnightLorenof
Dragon Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
52% · 404 games48% · 475 games
TinyV-Tune
Tiny
Earthshaker
Earthshakernicky`cool
54% · 156 games48% · 92 games
AbaddonDaxak
Abaddon
Windranger
Windrangerqueezy
50% · 244 games43% · 75 games
TinkerAntares
Tinker
Warlock
WarlockHduo
54% · 217 games49% · 352 games
JakiroRein
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct6:30
Runa Team 29%Virtus.pro 71%
The model gave 71% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 26:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonShigetsu
46% · 119 games54% · 181 game
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
47% · 120 games51% · 120 games
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
Phantom Assassin
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderAlberkaaa
57% · 26 games56% · 216 games
BeastmasterDaxak
Beastmaster
Tusk
Tuskqueezy
46% · 354 games48% · 146 games
BatriderAntares
Batrider
Ringmaster
RingmasterHduo
46% · 137 games56% · 93 games
SilencerRein
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 84%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2