BLAST Slam III · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:3series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Tundra Esportswin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 40 games
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 39 games
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 30 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 26 games
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 23 games
Jakiro
Sneyking · 21 game
Tundra Esports
Beastmastersignature
33 · 47 games
Doomsignature
33 · 37 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 28 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
dyrachyo · 26 games
Phoenixsignature
Whitemon · 26 games
Bristlebackoften banned
33 · 25 games
Dark Seersignature
33 · 25 games
Tusksignature
Saksa · 25 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
448 picks · 430 bans
Tiny
426 picks · 611 bans
Phantom Assassin
323 picks · 637 bans
Ringmaster
306 picks · 139 bans
Muerta
299 picks · 167 bans
Bristleback
293 picks · 548 bans
Beastmaster
287 picks · 573 bans
Terrorblade
287 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 65%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head9 – 8
Model total66% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:31
Team Falcons 40%Tundra Esports 60%
The model gave 60% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomMalr1ne
Beastmasterbzm
TinySkiter
RazorCrystallis
Dark SeerATF
Medusa33
HoodwinkCr1t-
Shadow ShamanSaksa
Crystal MaidenSneyking
MiranaWhitemon
Game 2prediction correct33:51
Team Falcons 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 52:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierMalr1ne
RazorCrystallis
DoomATF
Monkey Kingbzm
JakiroSneyking
Dark Seer33
WeaverSkiter
WarlockWhitemon
Bounty HunterCr1t-
TuskSaksa
Game 3prediction missed45:10
Team Falcons 43%Tundra Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 38:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetMalr1ne
Morphlingbzm
UrsaSkiter
UnderlordCrystallis
PangolierATF
Medusa33
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Ancient ApparitionWhitemon
RikiCr1t-
TuskSaksa
Game 4prediction correct29:32
Team Falcons 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 55:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawATF
Invokerbzm
TinySkiter
Phantom AssassinCrystallis
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
Sand King33
MiranaSneyking
Shadow ShamanSaksa
Shadow DemonCr1t-
WarlockWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 66%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4