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BLAST Slam III · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 30 games
77%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 29 games
69%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
shiro · 20 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 16 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 16 games
38%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
shiro · 15 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Faith_bian · 13 games
54%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
NothingToSay · 13 games
54%

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 35 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 31 game
68%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 30 games
70%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 28 games
79%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 22 games
68%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Yatoro · 22 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
62%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 20 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
445 picks · 428 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 637 bans
49%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
335 picks · 679 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
311 picks · 597 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
304 picks · 177 bans
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
302 picks · 138 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
296 picks · 598 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
294 picks · 488 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:28
Team Tidebound 35%Team Spirit 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
Underlordshiro
50% · 74 games50% · 113 games
Templar AssassinYatoro
Templar Assassin
Huskar
HuskarNothingToSay
54% · 41 game41% · 174 games
Ember SpiritLarl
Ember Spirit
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFaith_bian
53% · 179 games53% · 166 games
Sand KingCollapse
Sand King
Dark Willow
Dark WillowpLAnet
43% · 154 games54% · 84 games
WarlockMiposhka
Warlock
Ringmaster
Ringmastery`
56% · 112 games50% · 23 games
Rikirue
Riki
Game 2prediction correct22:28
Team Tidebound 35%Team Spirit 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 55:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingshiro
52% · 166 games50% · 147 games
Nature's ProphetYatoro
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
46% · 241 game54% · 152 games
EarthshakerLarl
Earthshaker
Bristleback
BristlebackFaith_bian
54% · 189 games56% · 162 games
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Windranger
WindrangerpLAnet
43% · 131 game50% · 323 games
Muertarue
Muerta
Warlock
Warlocky`
38% · 108 games62% · 51 game
BaneMiposhka
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 71%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2