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BLAST Slam III · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 27 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Pyw · 23 games
52%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Pyw · 22 games
68%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 21 game
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
niu · 20 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
天命 · 20 games
70%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
niu · 20 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
lou · 18 games
50%

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
42%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 19 games
42%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mira · 18 games
61%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Nightfall · 17 games
59%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 16 games
81%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kiyotaka · 15 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Jabz · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
451 picks · 643 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
443 picks · 429 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
338 picks · 691 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
317 picks · 607 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
310 picks · 180 bans
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
301 picks · 136 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
300 picks · 600 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
300 picks · 494 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 51%
Hero pool strength53% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total61% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:31
Xtreme Gaming 56%Aurora Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slardar
SlardarXm
50% · 91 game44% · 175 games
Phantom AssassinNightfall
Phantom Assassin
Timbersaw
TimbersawXxs
57% · 117 games51% · 181 game
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
Magnus
Bristleback
BristlebackAme
49% · 279 games43% · 295 games
Pangolierkiyotaka
Pangolier
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanXinQ
56% · 82 games54% · 94 games
Ancient ApparitionPanto
Ancient Apparition
Jakiro
JakiroPoloson
53% · 338 games45% · 162 games
RingmasterMira
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct30:15
Xtreme Gaming 56%Aurora Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 38:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAme
48% · 132 games55% · 67 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
53% · 136 games51% · 50 games
Queen of Painkiyotaka
Queen of Pain
Slardar
SlardarXm
45% · 85 games50% · 121 game
Sand KingTORONTOTOKYO
Sand King
Tinker
TinkerPoloson
42% · 93 games55% · 73 games
Ancient ApparitionMira
Ancient Apparition
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanXinQ
47% · 54 games52% · 189 games
JakiroPanto
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed11:25
Xtreme Gaming 58%Aurora Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:04:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetAme
49% · 183 games47% · 169 games
Monkey Kingkiyotaka
Monkey King
Sand King
Sand KingXm
53% · 261 game49% · 245 games
TinyNightfall
Tiny
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
53% · 219 games55% · 135 games
Dark SeerTORONTOTOKYO
Dark Seer
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPoloson
49% · 109 games49% · 53 games
Ancient ApparitionPanto
Ancient Apparition
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
49% · 106 games46% · 276 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 61%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3