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BLAST Slam III · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 38 games
76%
Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 36 games
69%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 29 games
76%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 28 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 25 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
45%
Magnus
Magnussignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muertasignature
rue · 35 games
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 32 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 29 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 28 games
79%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Yatoro · 23 games
57%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 22 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Yatoro · 21 game
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
462 picks · 652 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
441 picks · 424 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
347 picks · 709 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
321 picks · 630 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
311 picks · 184 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 499 bans
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
304 picks · 606 bans
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
298 picks · 134 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Team Spirit
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total58% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:26
Team Liquid 46%Team Spirit 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 47:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealermiCKe
51% · 86 games46% · 58 games
Troll WarlordYatoro
Troll Warlord
Timbersaw
TimbersawNisha
50% · 75 games54% · 124 games
KunkkaLarl
Kunkka
Sand King
Sand KingSabeRLight-
54% · 122 games50% · 196 games
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
Centaur Warrunner
Windranger
WindrangerBoxi
47% · 167 games46% · 53 games
Bounty Hunterrue
Bounty Hunter
Silencer
SilenceriNSaNiA
43% · 65 games55% · 84 games
Ancient ApparitionMiposhka
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed40:17
Team Liquid 47%Team Spirit 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 23:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
50% · 96 games45% · 101 game
Troll WarlordYatoro
Troll Warlord
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSabeRLight-
59% · 257 games47% · 299 games
BeastmasterCollapse
Beastmaster
Tinker
TinkeriNSaNiA
60% · 75 games46% · 362 games
PangolierLarl
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNisha
57% · 253 games46% · 139 games
Weaverrue
Weaver
Tusk
TuskBoxi
44% · 292 games48% · 72 games
SilencerMiposhka
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct13:42
Team Liquid 47%Team Spirit 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
49% · 82 games50% · 153 games
MedusaYatoro
Medusa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNisha
49% · 266 games51% · 274 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Tinker
TinkeriNSaNiA
51% · 69 games44% · 97 games
SlardarCollapse
Slardar
Sand King
Sand KingSabeRLight-
57% · 179 games50% · 97 games
Bounty HunterMiposhka
Bounty Hunter
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
52% · 193 games46% · 168 games
Snapfirerue
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 58%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3